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Технический анализ rss Технический анализ

Волатильность

Макс./Мин. значения цен закрытия определены за последние 20 торговых дней; Ст.Откл. - приведенное к годовому выражению стандартное отклонение дневных приростов


Максимум Минимум Неделя % Мес. % YTD % Станд. откл.
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


Корреляция

Коэффициенты корреляции определены для дневных приростов последних 20 торговых дней


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




Анализ инструментов



EUR/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Euro against the US dollar forex pair. As we can see at the price chart the currency pair is in a down trend as indicated by the declining trend line. Moreover, the Simple Moving averages are above the prices adding to the selling pressure. In the recent term, the currency pair declined to fresh 14-month low at 1.2835. The lower Bollinger band was breached indicating that the downside bias was strong while in the last trading session prices have been in consolidation. Nevertheless, the prices are near a long term low at a 2-year bottom at 1.2770 and the downward wave started from 1.3978 and extended to 1.2835 that creates concerns that is overextended. Fundamentals on the other hand are strongly bearish to the Euro.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that since September the 10th the volume has been diminishing while the EURUSD prices dropped to the 1.2835. The volume of trading provides a warning in this case that the bears are weakening and we might be near a potential reversal point.

EURUSD

Looking at the oscillators, we observe a very interesting thing which adds to the warning of the volume. The Stochastic is in neutral zone and normally would not be informative at all, however we said that prices dropped to fresh low but Stochastic did not follow. The same is observed with the longer term indicator, the RSI (14), creating a bullish divergence. At the same time the OsMA is above zero and gradually advancing. Based on this analysis, our opinion is favoring an upside scenario. The EURUSD could reverse at this point and start a correction in the following week. Prices could test initially resistance at 1.2974 ahead of the 38.2% of 1.3413 to 1.2835, at 1.3057.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.31971.30571.29741.28351.27721.2667



19 сентября 2014 г. @ 10:24

GBP/USD

Hello dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the sterling against the greenback forex couple. As we can see at the daily chart the currency pair is down trending and has found supported at earlier trading session at 1.6065 which is a new 9-month low. Prices rebounded in the previous to resistance at 1.6277 amid oversold indicators and investors were covering short positions. Downside bias has revived in the yesterday trading ahead of the Scotland vote for independency. Falling trend line suggests that bearish potential remains strong coupled by the 10, 20 and 50 Simple Moving Averages being well above prices. However, the currency pair fell sharply and substantially which concern us for its sustainability. The question here is, will this well extended bearish wave continue or a bounce up? One answer that all investors expect is that in case Scottish vote Yes the British pound would weaken further if the outcome is No then sterling would recover.


At the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume for the British pound was gradually decreasing as the prices were rising. That is actually indicating that bulls were losing their power as prices were retracing and eventually bears returned stronger. Also, as we approach the referendum day on Thursday, investors prefer to hold a wait and see stance. More polls would be published on Wednesday as well so we expect volume to increase from Wednesday. Lastly, we see on the price char that a “hanging man” candle formation was created below cap at 1.6277 before downside revival turning focus to support at 1.6065.

GBPUSD

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic rose to overbought zone quickly, the OsMA has almost reset to zero line suggesting that the risk is turning to lower levels. However, the RSI (14) remains at 30 line suggesting that the currency pair is overextended to the short side in the longer term. In our opinion, the GBPUSD has obviously touched at extreme low at 1.6065 and bounced up providing a chance to reposition on the short side, it is likely that would revisits support at 1.6065. Nevertheless we have to be cautious due to Scottish vote that could trigger any directions, it is hard to make a call at the moment, therefore we would take intraday positions only with tight stop loss.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.66431.65351.62771.60651.58661.5732



16 сентября 2014 г. @ 10:15

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair after it breached the previous strong support at 0.9234, it declined sharply to today’s bottom at 0.8983 touching a 6-month low. Downside momentum is clear in the price pattern and that suggests that selling pressure would persist but we would expect some moderation in the intraday. The support at 0.8983 is the 261.8% extension size of the corrective move from 0.9234 to 0.9394 and that could limit the negative potential in the short term.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading is increasing except for Friday and that validates the deep decline in the recent trading.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is falling and is trading in oversold ground well below the 20 line. The OsMA has moved greatly below its previous bottom line suggesting that a corrective move is imminent. Lastly, the RSI (14) is down trending but has also dropped in negative overextended territory indicating that lower room for prices is limited. In our opinion, the oscillators at the time being are confirming the price path and given their historical levels they provided warnings that the last bearish move is overextended. In the shorter term we consider chances are favoring corrective reaction, prices are likely to bounce up to resistance at 0.9076. However, in the longer term we expect the AUDUSD to continue its falling structure and decline even lower than 0.8983 towards next downside limitation at 0.8891.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение0.92050.91420.90760.89830.88910.8819



15 сентября 2014 г. @ 11:03

USD/CAD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. In the last trading sessions upside bias revived and that induced prices to return to the resistance at 1.1001. The cap at 1.1001 appears to be a strong one; first it locates at the 61.8% of the move from the more than 5-year peak at 1.1275 to 1.0620 and second previous two attempts to overpass it failed. Moreover, the currency pair is trading in a range formation between 1.1001/ 1.0810 as the both bears and bulls are equally strong. The support at 1.0810 could be a major one because prices made previous bottoms there and the 50 Simple Moving Average provides a downside hurdle as well. We could take advantage of the range trading formation by selling at the upper boundary and going long at the lower but we should check oscillators and volume for further clues before establishing an opinion.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable, that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading was increasing and that works as a confirmation of the last bullish candlesticks. Also we see that when prices have been at the bottom at 1.0810 the volume was low while at 1.1001 the trading activity is high. Lastly, a break of the upper level at 1.1001 should be coupled by increased volume in order for that break through to be considered as valid.

USDCAD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic has approached oversold zone, the MACD is in positive ground suggesting the bullish bias and the OsMA is positive. The Bollinger bands have narrowed and that suggests a break out is becoming more imminent. In our opinion, chances are slightly favoring the upside scenario because in the longer term the trend is positive, daily term oscillators do not restrict bullish break out and the volume of trading favors the bull run. Trading the range by going short at top it’s our alternative scenario but it’s a risky trade and should be implemented only with tight stop loss. Finally, a breakthrough of resistance at 1.1001 could drive prices to next cap at 1.1109 which is the 161.8% of 1.1001 to 1.0810.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.12751.11941.10011.08101.07061.0620



11 сентября 2014 г. @ 9:51

PCI

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to technically analyze a special instrument created with the GeWorko. We have observed that the Australian dollar against the US dollar made a considerable bearish move in the recent trading sessions.


We decided therefore to check whether the bears will persist on the AUDUSD pair and if the short positioning is still a good trade. For that we are using the Australian dollar against a broad basket of currencies; we also included the golden metal. We created a financial instrument with the AUD as base currency and quote currencies the Sterling, the Canadian, the Swissy, the Euro, the Yen, the Kiwi, the Greenback and the Gold. We named it AUD Ratio.


By using NetTradeX we are able to create our own Personal Composite Instrument. We use equal weights for the quote currencies and the Gold, in order to capture the impact of all the counterparties to the Australian dollar. Each quote party has equal weight of 12.5%. So when the AUD ratio goes up it means that the Aussie gains against the quote parties and when the AUD Ratio falls means that the Kangaroo currency dips. For a guide on how to create your personal composite instruments (PCI) by using Geworko Method check out this link PCI Guide.


Now let’s look at the AUD Ratio price chart. We can observe a clear up trend on the price pattern as indicated by the weekly and the daily valid rising trend lines. Based on the Dow theory the AUD Ratio is more likely in the long term to go higher however at the moment the AUD Ratio makes a retracement towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9973 while the AUDUSD is falling heavily and is clearly in a downtrend. Therefore we could argue that the AUDUSD forex pair is mostly impacted due to greenback’s strength and not because of the Aussie weakness. The AUD ratio could finish its retracement at 0.9973 and return to upside bias, however that does not mean that the AUDUSD would stop its downward spiral.


As we can see at the Aussie Relative Performance chart below where each major currency performance is shown compared to the Australian dollar. The Aussie was performing badly since 08th of September against all the major currencies except the Gold. The worst performance was against the US dollar and the Euro while it seems that the declining Gold is adding to the Australian dollar selling pressure.



Looking at the oscillators the AUD Ratio was overextended to the upside. The Stochastic was deep in the overbought territory and the OsMA was at previous peaks area, lastly the RSI (14) was above the 70 line. In our opinion and based on that technical analysis the AUD Ratio is likely to continue its retracement to 0.9973 in the following trading sessions but eventually we would expect the support at 0.9973 to hold its ground and lift quotes. Additionally, the AUD Ratio depicts some significant conclusions for the Aussie against the US dollar pattern that is the bearish power of the currency pair could fade soon. Its prices would either go in consolidation or at a slower pace continue falling, therefore new short positions on AUDUSD could not be the right decision.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.01871.01201.00550.99730.98420.9783



10 сентября 2014 г. @ 10:46

USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair escaped from therange trading structure by breaching previous support at 104.27 and formed an advancing pattern as indicated by the climbing trend line. The forex couple rose to fresh 5-year high at 106.37 and the bias is clearly upside thus we might see higher prices in the intraday. All the Simple moving Averages are below prices and that supports the upside continuation scenario.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that in the previous week of trading the Japanese Yen volume increased validating the bullish rally of the prices.

USDJPY


Looking at the Oscillators the OsMA is at previous peaks line, the Stochastic is above the 80 line and the RSI (14) is in the overbought zone. Therefore, the oscillators suggest the that the USDJPY is at extreme highs. In our view, the currency pair overpassed a key resistance and remained above that indicating that up trend is the prevailing structure however we are cautious due to the overbought oscillators. A consolidation trading may take place around 106.37 before prices continue to next cap at 108.23.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение109.40108.23106.37105.40104.27103.55



9 сентября 2014 г. @ 9:53

 

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