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Технический анализ rss Технический анализ

Волатильность

Макс./Мин. значения цен закрытия определены за последние 20 торговых дней; Ст.Откл. - приведенное к годовому выражению стандартное отклонение дневных приростов


Максимум Минимум Неделя % Мес. % YTD % Станд. откл.
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


Корреляция

Коэффициенты корреляции определены для дневных приростов последних 20 торговых дней


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




Анализ инструментов



USD/JPY

Let’s consider the daily chart of USD/JPY currency pair. The triangle breakdown led to the birth of a new bullish tendency, which is confirmed by trend indicator ParabolicSAR and decline of Donchian Channel. It should be remarked that an upward tendency has been formed by RSI-Bars signal. We expect a continuation of trend after the break down of RSI resistance line. Most probably it will be triggered by a corresponding price resistance intersection at 122.041. This level is confirmed by Bill Williams’s fractal and the upper boundary of Donchian Channel. Besides this mark has been once tested by the upper top of triangle. That’s why the resistance intersection may trigger a new highly volatile upward motion.
УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение121.97120.37119.89120.63118.63118.29



20 марта 2015 г. @ 13:39

EUR/USD

Let’s consider the daily chart of USD/JPY currency pair. The triangle breakdown led to the birth of a new bullish tendency, which is confirmed by trend indicator ParabolicSAR and decline of Donchian Channel. It should be remarked that an upward tendency has been formed by RSI-Bars signal. We expect a continuation of trend after the break down of RSI resistance line. Most probably it will be triggered by a corresponding price resistance intersection at 122.041. This level is confirmed by Bill Williams’s fractal and the upper boundary of Donchian Channel. Besides this mark has been once tested by the upper top of triangle. That’s why the resistance intersection may trigger a new highly volatile upward motion.
УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение121.9670120.3720119.8890120.6310118.6280118.2940



20 марта 2015 г. @ 11:50

USD/JPY

Let’s consider a daily chart of the USD/JPY trading instrument. A triangular chart model is already formed with a bearish decline. A price updated local minimums of a Donchian channel. The RSI-Bars oscillator signal verifies a basic decline as well, however we recommend conservative traders to look for a support breakdown (35.1257%). Probably this will happen simultaneously with a breakdown of a triangular downside. At the same time a reverse of the Parabolic trend indicator is expected. Finally we’ll take a confirmation from all available analytical tools. Preliminary risk limitation may be connected with a triangular height, the same for profit taking.

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение120.84120.01118.94117.15115.86115.41



3 февраля 2015 г. @ 18:26

USD/JPY

Good day, dear traders. Today we shall consider USDJPY pair at daily chart. The correction of price movement inside D1 bearish trend channel has been completed and a new momentum is forming. H4 decreasing tendency is confirmed by Donchian Channel indicator and RSI signal. However we may observe a temporary weakening of momentum – a fractal support 105.100 is strengthened by historical values of Parabolic. A reverse of indicator will happen if a price breaks this level and moves into the red zone. In this case a final confirmation of trend continuation will be received. A risk control may be implemented according to the significant levels of chart analysis with an account of Parabolic signal.

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение108.45108.45108.45105.10105.10105.10



30 октября 2014 г. @ 13:26

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair bearish bias drove prices to a more than an 8-month low at 0.8661. Downside structure has been strong as indicated by the steep falling trend line. The steep falling trend line though was breached yesterday after the formation of a “Hammer with bullish Engulfing candlesticks”. That also shows the AUDUSD is making its larger correction since the 5th of September. The 10 day moving average is now limiting the pull back slightly below the resistance at 0.8839, however prices could continue to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8934. Lastly, the support at 0.8661 appears to be a strong one because is the second time that maintains a strong bearish wave.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that after the September 12th the volume of trading remained at lower levels while prices have been declining suggesting that the bears are getting weaker.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is rising following the corrective move of prices and is trading in neutral zone at the moment. The OsMA has moved towards the zero line and is gradually advancing while the RSI (14) is now in up trend. In our opinion, prices are entering a period of retracement mood after overextension of the downside move however bulls do not seem willing to return in the market. Moreover, the today’s major US employment report is likely to shake the AUDUSD and could trigger a new selling wave in the short term. We do not expect the support at 0.8661 to be penetrated given its importance. Also according to the volume analysis bears’ power is fading and sooner or later a deeper correction is likely.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение0.91150.89430.88390.86610.85950.8445



3 октября 2014 г. @ 9:58

USD/CAD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. In the last trading sessions upside bias drove prices to recent cap at 1.1217 and in the last two daily trading sessions prices retreated due to overbought indicators. The cap at 1.1217 could be a strong one since is at the 161.8% Fibonacci level of the retracement from 1.1097 to 1.0909. Moreover, the Simple Mving Averages are below prices which increase upside momentum and the valid rising trend line remains in place confirming bullish development. Based on the price pattern we could see a pull back at the support at 1.0997 andwe could take advantage of that retracement although is too risky ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. Yesterday the release of private employment showed higher job creation in September and that gives a signal of a possible stronger NFP in September as well. We should check oscillators and volume for further clues before establishing an opinion.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable, that on the second half of September the volume of trading was steady, more specifically the volume peaked at 11 of September when prices peaked at 1.1097 but at the higher high of prices at 1.1217 the volume did not follow. That could be a warning signal for the bulls since they seem to be fading.

USDCAD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic has been in overbought zone and now is falling. The MACD is in positive ground but at extreme highs and the OsMA was limited by previous peaks line. In our opinion, we would expect the retracement to continue lower or extend in a sideways path. Upside revive seems possible amid strong up trend but the bulls are weak as the volume analysis revealed. Nevertheless we are ahead of major economic releases which could create new bullish bias and boost the USDCAD. One last thing to keep in mind is that the resistance at 1.1275 is a five year peak and is considered a strong one, likely to limit any bullish attempt.


УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.14111.12751.12171.10971.09971.0909



2 октября 2014 г. @ 10:22

 

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