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Технический анализ rss Технический анализ

Волатильность

Макс./Мин. значения цен закрытия определены за последние 20 торговых дней; Ст.Откл. - приведенное к годовому выражению стандартное отклонение дневных приростов


Максимум Минимум Неделя % Мес. % YTD % Станд. откл.
EUR/USD 1.3684 1.3488 1.12% 1.50% 5.40% 5.20%
GBP/USD 1.6221 1.5948 0.83% 0.80% 3.81% 7.85%
USD/JPY 98.97 96.86 0.15% -0.41% 27.71% 7.87%
USD/CHF 0.9132 0.8989 -1.08% -1.07% -3.70% 7.12%
AUD/USD 0.9675 0.9312 1.40% 2.83% -5.78% 5.64%
USD/CAD 1.0396 1.0285 -0.82% -0.06% 1.24% 4.09%


Корреляция

Коэффициенты корреляции определены для дневных приростов последних 20 торговых дней


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.80 -0.59 -0.93 0.06 -0.24
GBP/USD 0.80 1 -0.68 -0.86 0.00 0.03
USD/JPY -0.59 -0.68 1 0.66 -0.05 -0.19
USD/CHF -0.93 -0.86 0.66 1 -0.06 0.07
AUD/USD 0.06 0.00 -0.05 0.06 1 -0.27
USD/CAD -0.24 0.03 -0.19 0.07 -0.27 1




Анализ инструментов



PCI

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to technically analyze a special instrument created with the GeWorko. We have recently watched the sterling against the US dollar moving from 6-year highs at 1.7187 to as low as 1.6599, that is 3.5% in one and a half month. Also the GBPUSD declined yesterday to new lows with technical oscillators being oversold.

We decided therefore to check the validity and the strength of bears in the British pound against a broad basket of currencies; we also included the golden metal. We created a financial instrument with the GBP as base currency and quote currencies the Aussie, the Canadian, the Swissy, the Euro, the Yen, the Kiwi, the Greenback and the Gold. We named it GBP Ratio.


By using NetTradeX we are able to create our own Personal Composite Instrument. We use equal weights for the quote currencies and the Gold, in order to capture the impact of all the counterparties to the British pound. Each quote party has equal weight of 12.5%. So when the GBP ratio goes up it means that the British pound gains against the quote parties and when the GBP Ratio falls means that the Sterling eases. For a guide on how to create your personal composite instruments (PCI) by using Geworko Method check out this link PCI Guide.


Now let’s look at the GBP Ratio price chart. We can observe a clear down trend on the index with a valid falling trend line as an indication. The down trend started from the 16th of July 2014 at 1.0172 and since then the pound has been on a downfall against its peers, it reached the support at 0.9971 on the 15th of August which is almost a 3-month low. Based on this financial instrument the pound lost during this period almost 2% which is less than 3.5% drop of the GBPUSD. That confirms the oversold technical oscillators in the GBPUSD as the higher negative move reveals the overextension. Also, one can observe that the GBP Ratio failed to make a new low therefore we could conclude that there is a bullish divergence compared to the GBPUSD price chart.


Moreover, the Stochastic is currently in the oversold territory and the OsMA is at previous bottoms for the GBP Ratio suggesting that a retracement is more likely. In our opinion and based on that technical analysis the GBP Ratio could provide some significant conclusions for the British pound like that the currency is oversold and overextended to the downside which drives us to forecast that is more likely to see a retracement to 1.0024 or even to 1.0071. Lastly, with the analysis of the GBP Ratio we come to the conclusion that the GBPUSD is more likely to enter in corrective wave in the following trading sessions.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.01021.00711.00240.99710.99320.9865



20 августа 2014 г. @ 9:52

EUR/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Euro against the US dollar forex pair. As we can see at the price chart the currency pair is in a down trend as indicated by the declining trend line. Moreover, the Simple Moving averages are above the prices adding to the selling pressure. In the recent term, the currency pair stopped at the support level at 1.3333 which is a 10-month low and extended in sideways trading between top limitation at1.3413 and lower boundary at 1.3333. Currently forex couple is approaching the lower level while the Bollinger bands are narrowing around prices that suggest we may see a break out soon. Based on the price formation the chances favor falling path to continue.



Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading dropped and that is mainly due to range trading. Any break of the upper level at 1.3413 or lower level at 1.3333 should be coupled by increased volume so to be considered as a valid breakout.

EURUSD

Looking at the oscillators, Stochastic is in neutral territory, the OsMA has been gradually advancing but now is neutral as well and the RSI (14) made higher highs and higher lows suggesting that we may see an upside renewal. In our opinion, the price structure favors a lower break out which could happen soon according to Bollinger bands’ squeeze. However, the strong support at 1.3336 would not give up its ground easily and for that reason we would prefer to confirm any break out with high volume. Next support is seen at 1.3208. In the alternative scenario, prices could breach upper level at 1.3413 and rise toward 50.0% of 1.37 to 1.3333, at 1.3507. However, should the prices breach support at 1.3336 that would suggest the currency pair would continue its bearish development without a corrective move, towards next support at 1.3191.


УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.35621.35071.34131.33331.32081.3102



19 августа 2014 г. @ 10:04

USD/CHF

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Swiss franc trading pattern. As we can see at the chart, prices found a support at 0.9020, declining from resistance at 0.9114. The valid rising trend line suggests that the upward development is more likely to continue and strengthens the support area around 0.9023 and 0.9009. Moreover, the corrective move from cap at 0.9114 to support at 0.9023 represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rising wave from 0.8854 to 0.9114 and that suggests the downside may reverse around 0.9023. However, the Simple Moving Averages are above prices adding to the downside pressure for the time being.


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is declining below its signal line but its close to oversold territory. The OsMA also moves downward and the RSI (14) is down trending. The USDCHF made a corrective move in the last two weeks at a strong support which could limit short term downside but oscillators favor deeper correction. In our opinion, the currency pair is likely to reverse in the following trading sessions and revisit previous peak at 0.9114, however we would be cautious since oscillators do not fully agree with that scenario. Tight risk risk /reward ratio is the answer for the traders who are favoring the long side.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение0.92460.91620.91140.90230.88540.8743



18 августа 2014 г. @ 11:11

GBP/USD

Hello dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the sterling against the greenback forex couple. As we can see at the daily chart the currency pair breached the support at 1.6692 and fell to a new 2 ½ -month low at 1.6665. Downside bias prevails in the price chart and that is indicated by the falling trend line. Moreover, the 20 and 50 Simple Moving Averages have created a “death-cross” pattern and continue their declining path. However, there is not a reversal pattern formation and that concern us. The question here is, will this well extended bearish wave continue?


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic has just entered the oversold territory and the OsMA is hovering slightly above the previous bottoms border suggesting the price move is overextended. The RSI (14) is down trending but has also dropped below line at 30, which indicates overextension. We should not exclude the possibility of oscillators moving even lower but that does not mean we ignore the contrarian signals. In our opinion, the GBPUSD is obviously biased for further lows, however the overextended oscillators indicate that falling path would sooner or later pause. We would favor for the immediate trading the downward continuation towards next support at 1.6557. Today we would watch carefully the US Jobless Claims expected to stand at 307K and tomorrow we are cautious for the UK Second Estimate GDP for the second quarter of 2014. The first GDP estimate was at 0.8%, higher than that would support the sterling.


УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.68141.67561.66921.66651.65571.6462



14 августа 2014 г. @ 9:56

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair likely created a reversal pattern from 9-month peak at 0.9502 to recent support at 0.9240 or it could just be in a wide range between top at 0.9502 and bottom at 0.9207. If we just see the shorter term formation, falling trend lines suggest the bearish sentiment prevails. Moreover, Simple Moving Averages formed a triple “death” cross adding to the negative bias expectation. However, the support at 0.9240 it is the 161.8% extension of the up move from 0.9329 to 0.9471, previous low has been observed around 0.9240 and 0.9207 which suggests that these support levels might be hard to overpass.


Looking at the oscillators, MACD is gradually declining and has room for lower levels suggesting that downside could continue. The Stochastic is negative and slightly above its oversold zone, given the down trend in the short term, the oscillator can go deeper. The OsMA suggests a retracement could continue. In our opinion, the down trend exists while the current bounce up is due to support at 0.9241 and the even stronger support at 0.9207 where buy orders are placed. We would believe that bears are accumulating power at the moment and prices would likely revisit downside hurdle at 0.9241 and most likely to test the lower support as well, at 0.9207.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение0.93730.93290.92980.92410.92070.9137



13 августа 2014 г. @ 9:58

USD/CAD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. Deep corrective move from support at 1.0620 eventually drew a resistance line at 1.0985 which is a more than 2–month high and extended in sideways trading. The falling trend line as we can see has been long before breached signifying the bullish weakness. Currently the Simple Moving Averages are below prices providing an extra support and together with the rising trend line suggest that upside bias is strong.


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic has retraced from the overbought zone and that provides the chance to prices to continue their upward path. The MACD is in positive ground and the OsMA is gradually falling suggesting weakness. In our opinion, chances are slightly favoring the continuation of previous upside structure. However, that should be confirmed by a valid breach of the upper boundary at 1.0985. Alternatively, should the USDCAD prices penetrate the lower boundary at 1.0903 that could indicate reversal of the rising development and chances would favor downside trajectory.


УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.11941.10611.09851.09031.08241.0706



12 августа 2014 г. @ 10:06

 

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