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Технический анализ rss Технический анализ

Волатильность

Макс./Мин. значения цен закрытия определены за последние 20 торговых дней; Ст.Откл. - приведенное к годовому выражению стандартное отклонение дневных приростов


Максимум Минимум Неделя % Мес. % YTD % Станд. откл.
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


Корреляция

Коэффициенты корреляции определены для дневных приростов последних 20 торговых дней


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




Анализ инструментов



USD/CAD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. In the last trading sessions downside bias revived and that induced prices to return to the support at 1.0859, like we have predicted in the last analysis. The currency pair inched below 1.0859, where lower Bollinger band is situated, to as low as 1.0808 but prices then pulled back and daily candles failed to close below 1.0859. That indicates buy orders are placed around that support and that obstructs the downside way. As we can see at the chart, bearish development would be established and the falling trend line would be validated should the prices penetrate the bottom at 1.0859. Moreover, currently the Simple Moving Averages are above prices except the 50 SMA which is placed at 1.0808 and that adds to the strong support hypothesis.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable, that on the last two trading sessions the volume of trading decreased substantially while when prices fell to support at 1.0859 the volume was high. That works as a confirmation of the last bearish candlestick. Any break of the lower level at 1.0859 or at 1.0808 should be coupled by increased volume in order for that break through to be considered as valid.

USDCAD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is close to the oversold zone and that suggests there is a limited chance for prices to continue their downward path. The MACD is in positive ground but declining and the OsMA is negative close to previous bottoms. In our opinion, chances are favoring the falling scenario in the longer term however strong support zone between 1.0859/1.0808 would not give up its ground easily. For this week we would expect prices to continue mainly in sideways due to major economic releases in both Canada and US shadowing forex trading.


УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.09831.09511.08591.08081.07761.0706



1 сентября 2014 г. @ 10:54

USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair rose to support at 104.27 and formed an advancing structure as indicated by the climbing trend line, currently the forex couple retraced to support at 103.55. It seems that prices escaped the range trading pattern between 103.88/100.77 and that favors the upside development. All the Simple Moving Averages are below prices and that adds to upside expectations.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last month trading the Japanese Yen volume of trading is decreasing while the Japanese Yen was losing in power. More specifically on the 22nd and 20th of August when prices of the USDJPY moved to higher ground, volume spiked higher as well, validating directions. Also in the last four trading sessions when prices retrace the volume is low suggesting that bears in the USDJPY are weak.

USDJPY


The Oscillators are declined in the last four trading sessions like the prices did. The Stochastic has retraced from overbought zone and now is in neutral zone heading lower. The OsMA is gradually falling while the RSI (14) dropped below 70 line. In our view, we consider that for the longer term we should watch for potential breakthrough of the upper barrier at 104.27. Currently oscillators are correcting from overbought zones to give the chance for prices to continue higher


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение105.39104.80104.27103.55103.08102.43



29 августа 2014 г. @ 10:07

EUR/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Euro against the US dollar forex pair. As we can see at the price chart the currency pair is in a down trend as indicated by the declining trend line. Moreover, the Simple Moving averages are above the prices adding to the selling pressure. In the recent term, the currency pair stopped at the support level at 1.3152 which is a fresh 11-month low and at the moment is making an effort to correct from that bottom. The lower Bollinger band was breached but then prices quickly retraced, bearish sentiment remains high in the currency pair according to the price chart pattern. However, bottom at 1.3152 appears to be strong due to previous decline ending there and also due to Fibonacci extensions projecting end of the negative wave at round 1.3152.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading is increasing. More specifically on the 25th and 26th of August when prices moved to fresh 11-month lows volume was lower than on the 27th when the currency pair reacted positively. That suggests bulls are start to accumulate power and the corrective move could get deeper.

EURUSD

Looking at the oscillators, Stochastic is oversold for considerable time, the OsMA touched in earlier sessions on previous bottoms line and the RSI (14) is below 30 line. All that suggest, the EURUSD is oversold. In our opinion, the price structure even though is clearly negative, chances favor a corrective reaction due to strong support and oversold indicators. Moreover, volume from CME confirms that bulls are becoming stronger. Therefore, we would expect a bounce up towards resistance at 1.3330 which it was a previous support and around the 61.8% of the fall from 1.3413 to 1.3152. In the alternative scenario, prices could breach lower level at 1.3152 and dip toward next handle at 1.3102.


УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.35071.34131.33301.31521.31021.2987



28 августа 2014 г. @ 10:36

PCI

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to technically analyze a special instrument created with the GeWorko. We have observed that the Australian dollar against the US dollar moved from 0.8660 early in 2014 to 10-month peak at 0.9500 on the first of July, that is a 9.72% bullish move. Then the currency pair entered in sideways trading between 0.9502/0.9206 zone.


We decided therefore to check whether the bulls will overcome the sideways zone in the AUDUSD pair and if they would manage to extend the uptrend structure. For that we are using the Australian dollar against a broad basket of currencies; we also included the golden metal. We created a financial instrument with the AUD as base currency and quote currencies the Sterling, the Canadian, the Swissy, the Euro, the Yen, the Kiwi, the Greenback and the Gold. We named it AUD Ratio.



By using NetTradeX we are able to create our own Personal Composite Instrument. We use equal weights for the quote currencies and the Gold, in order to capture the impact of all the counterparties to the Australian dollar. Each quote party has equal weight of 12.5%. So when the AUD ratio goes up it means that the Aussie gains against the quote parties and when the AUD Ratio falls means that the Kangaroo currency dips. For a guide on how to create your personal composite instruments (PCI) by using Geworko Method check out this link PCI Guide.


Now let’s look at the AUD Ratio price chart. We can observe a clear up trend on the price pattern with a valid rising trend line as an indication. The uptrend started from early January from 0.9304 and peaked yesterday at 1.0025 that is a 7.72% surging move. Based on this the AUD Ratio made a smaller rising move in the last 8 months however at the moment the AUD Ratio makes new high while the AUDUSD is still in range. Moreover, the AUD Ratio has previously provided some early signs. If we look at the AUDUSD chart, the currency pair did a higher peak at 0.9500 on July 1st while at the same time the AUD Ratio was making a lower high. That was a warning for a “bull trap” or in other words a fake higher break through, which afterwards was authenticated by prices in later trading sessions. Therefore, we can use the AUD Ratio as an indicator for the AUDUSD.


Looking at the oscillators the AUD Ratio seems overextended to the upside. The Stochastic is currently in the overbought territory and the OsMA is at previous peaks area. In our opinion and based on that technical analysis the AUD Ratio could make a retracement in the following trading sessions but eventually we would expect the upside direction to continue. Additionally, the AUD Ratio depicts some significant conclusions for the Aussie against the US dollar pattern that is the currency pair is likely to move to the upside and continue its rising structure.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.03231.01211.00250.99920.98420.9783



27 августа 2014 г. @ 10:36

USD/CHF

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Swiss franc trading pattern. As we can see at the chart, prices found resistance at 0.9173, advancing from support at 0.9023. The valid rising trend line suggests that the upward development is more likely to continue and that increases chances that the cap at 0.9173 would be breached. Moreover, the Simple Moving Averages are below prices adding to the upside pressure. However, the cap at 0.9173 represents the 161.8% extension of the corrective move from 0.9114 to 0.9021 strengthening the cap besides the last candlestick formed a “hanging man” increasing the strength of the resistance level there.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the 22nd of August the volume increased but on the 25th of August declined considerably indicating that bulls lost their power there. We would still expect confirmation of the “hanging man” formation and that would come with a black candle and large volume.

USDCHF

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is overbought since it’s above the 80% line. The OsMA moves upward and the RSI (14) approached its 70 line. Furthermore, the RSI (14) formed a bearish divergence signal because it failed to make new high like the price pattern did. In our opinion and based on this analysis the currency pair is more likely to correct in the following trading sessions towards support at 0.9113. Prices could go even lower, towards the rising trend line.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение0.93500.92500.91730.91130.90210.8959



26 августа 2014 г. @ 10:34

GBP/USD

Hello dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the sterling against the greenback forex couple. As we can see at the daily chart the currency pair breached the support at 1.6655 and fell to a new 5-month low at 1.6638. Downside bias was strong in the price chart and that is indicated by the falling trend line. Moreover, the 20 and 50 Simple Moving Averages are well above prices and are declining strongly. However, the currency pair fell sharply therefore it did not create a reversal formation and that concern us. In addition, the today candlestick opened lower creating a trading gap but due to the stronger bullish bias prices quickly recovered as traders were covering short positions. The question here is, will this well extended bearish wave continue or refresh?


At the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume for the British pound has been decreasing. That has been mainly due to bears getting weaker as well as amid uncertainty over the Jackson Hole Symposium. We are expecting the tomorrow release of the CME volume to validate the bullish reaction.

GBPUSD

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is well into the overbought territory, the OsMA has slightly retreated from previous bottoms level and the RSI (14) is below 30 line suggesting that the currency pair is overextended to the negative side. In our opinion, the GBPUSD has obviously touched at extreme low at 1.6538 and then quickly retraced with prices lastly seen at 1.6593. We are favoring development of corrective move towards resistance at 1.6663 in the following trading sessions.

GBPUSD

However, as we see at the chart above, in the hourly time frame, prices the retracement was very quick and drove hourly oscillators to overbought levels, therefore in lower time frames we should be cautious for consolidation trading.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

УровниRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Значение1.67371.66931.66631.65381.64621.6300



25 августа 2014 г. @ 13:09

 

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