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Análisis técnico rss Análisis técnico

Volatilidad

El valor Máx. / Mín. de los precios de cierre se determinan en los últimos 20 días de comercio; Desviación Estandar, - Convertido en términos anuales, expresa de la desviación estándar de los incrementos diarios


Máx. Min. Semana % Mes % YTD % desviación estándar
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


correlación

Los coeficientes de correlación están determinados para los incrementos diarios, de los últimos 20 días de comercio.


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




Intrumentos de Análisis



EUR/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Euro against the US dollar forex pair. As we can see at the price chart the currency pair is in a down trend as indicated by the declining trend line. Moreover, the Simple Moving averages are above the prices adding to the selling pressure. In the recent term, the currency pair stopped at the support level at 1.3152 which is a fresh 11-month low and at the moment is making an effort to correct from that bottom. The lower Bollinger band was breached but then prices quickly retraced, bearish sentiment remains high in the currency pair according to the price chart pattern. However, bottom at 1.3152 appears to be strong due to previous decline ending there and also due to Fibonacci extensions projecting end of the negative wave at round 1.3152.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading is increasing. More specifically on the 25th and 26th of August when prices moved to fresh 11-month lows volume was lower than on the 27th when the currency pair reacted positively. That suggests bulls are start to accumulate power and the corrective move could get deeper.

EURUSD

Looking at the oscillators, Stochastic is oversold for considerable time, the OsMA touched in earlier sessions on previous bottoms line and the RSI (14) is below 30 line. All that suggest, the EURUSD is oversold. In our opinion, the price structure even though is clearly negative, chances favor a corrective reaction due to strong support and oversold indicators. Moreover, volume from CME confirms that bulls are becoming stronger. Therefore, we would expect a bounce up towards resistance at 1.3330 which it was a previous support and around the 61.8% of the fall from 1.3413 to 1.3152. In the alternative scenario, prices could breach lower level at 1.3152 and dip toward next handle at 1.3102.


NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.35071.34131.33301.31521.31021.2987



28 de agosto de 2014 @ 10:36

PCI

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to technically analyze a special instrument created with the GeWorko. We have observed that the Australian dollar against the US dollar moved from 0.8660 early in 2014 to 10-month peak at 0.9500 on the first of July, that is a 9.72% bullish move. Then the currency pair entered in sideways trading between 0.9502/0.9206 zone.


We decided therefore to check whether the bulls will overcome the sideways zone in the AUDUSD pair and if they would manage to extend the uptrend structure. For that we are using the Australian dollar against a broad basket of currencies; we also included the golden metal. We created a financial instrument with the AUD as base currency and quote currencies the Sterling, the Canadian, the Swissy, the Euro, the Yen, the Kiwi, the Greenback and the Gold. We named it AUD Ratio.



By using NetTradeX we are able to create our own Personal Composite Instrument. We use equal weights for the quote currencies and the Gold, in order to capture the impact of all the counterparties to the Australian dollar. Each quote party has equal weight of 12.5%. So when the AUD ratio goes up it means that the Aussie gains against the quote parties and when the AUD Ratio falls means that the Kangaroo currency dips. For a guide on how to create your personal composite instruments (PCI) by using Geworko Method check out this link PCI Guide.


Now let’s look at the AUD Ratio price chart. We can observe a clear up trend on the price pattern with a valid rising trend line as an indication. The uptrend started from early January from 0.9304 and peaked yesterday at 1.0025 that is a 7.72% surging move. Based on this the AUD Ratio made a smaller rising move in the last 8 months however at the moment the AUD Ratio makes new high while the AUDUSD is still in range. Moreover, the AUD Ratio has previously provided some early signs. If we look at the AUDUSD chart, the currency pair did a higher peak at 0.9500 on July 1st while at the same time the AUD Ratio was making a lower high. That was a warning for a “bull trap” or in other words a fake higher break through, which afterwards was authenticated by prices in later trading sessions. Therefore, we can use the AUD Ratio as an indicator for the AUDUSD.


Looking at the oscillators the AUD Ratio seems overextended to the upside. The Stochastic is currently in the overbought territory and the OsMA is at previous peaks area. In our opinion and based on that technical analysis the AUD Ratio could make a retracement in the following trading sessions but eventually we would expect the upside direction to continue. Additionally, the AUD Ratio depicts some significant conclusions for the Aussie against the US dollar pattern that is the currency pair is likely to move to the upside and continue its rising structure.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.03231.01211.00250.99920.98420.9783



27 de agosto de 2014 @ 10:36

USD/CHF

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Swiss franc trading pattern. As we can see at the chart, prices found resistance at 0.9173, advancing from support at 0.9023. The valid rising trend line suggests that the upward development is more likely to continue and that increases chances that the cap at 0.9173 would be breached. Moreover, the Simple Moving Averages are below prices adding to the upside pressure. However, the cap at 0.9173 represents the 161.8% extension of the corrective move from 0.9114 to 0.9021 strengthening the cap besides the last candlestick formed a “hanging man” increasing the strength of the resistance level there.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the 22nd of August the volume increased but on the 25th of August declined considerably indicating that bulls lost their power there. We would still expect confirmation of the “hanging man” formation and that would come with a black candle and large volume.

USDCHF

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is overbought since it’s above the 80% line. The OsMA moves upward and the RSI (14) approached its 70 line. Furthermore, the RSI (14) formed a bearish divergence signal because it failed to make new high like the price pattern did. In our opinion and based on this analysis the currency pair is more likely to correct in the following trading sessions towards support at 0.9113. Prices could go even lower, towards the rising trend line.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor0.93500.92500.91730.91130.90210.8959



26 de agosto de 2014 @ 10:34

GBP/USD

Hello dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the sterling against the greenback forex couple. As we can see at the daily chart the currency pair breached the support at 1.6655 and fell to a new 5-month low at 1.6638. Downside bias was strong in the price chart and that is indicated by the falling trend line. Moreover, the 20 and 50 Simple Moving Averages are well above prices and are declining strongly. However, the currency pair fell sharply therefore it did not create a reversal formation and that concern us. In addition, the today candlestick opened lower creating a trading gap but due to the stronger bullish bias prices quickly recovered as traders were covering short positions. The question here is, will this well extended bearish wave continue or refresh?


At the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume for the British pound has been decreasing. That has been mainly due to bears getting weaker as well as amid uncertainty over the Jackson Hole Symposium. We are expecting the tomorrow release of the CME volume to validate the bullish reaction.

GBPUSD

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is well into the overbought territory, the OsMA has slightly retreated from previous bottoms level and the RSI (14) is below 30 line suggesting that the currency pair is overextended to the negative side. In our opinion, the GBPUSD has obviously touched at extreme low at 1.6538 and then quickly retraced with prices lastly seen at 1.6593. We are favoring development of corrective move towards resistance at 1.6663 in the following trading sessions.

GBPUSD

However, as we see at the chart above, in the hourly time frame, prices the retracement was very quick and drove hourly oscillators to overbought levels, therefore in lower time frames we should be cautious for consolidation trading.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.67371.66931.66631.65381.64621.6300



25 de agosto de 2014 @ 13:09

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair has likely created a reversal pattern from 9-month peak at 0.9502 to recent support at 0.9240 and that is indicated by the falling trend line. However the currency couple could just be in a wide range between top at 0.9502 and bottom at 0.9207. Nevertheless, the support at 0.9240 represents a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the up move from 0.9328 to 0.9471. The latter, suggests that we are looking at a falling structure and the support at 0.9240 is strong. Moreover, Simple Moving Averages formed a triple “death” cross adding to the negative bias expectation.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that on the last trading session the volume of trading is decreasing and that suggests the last upside candle could not be valid. Moreover the trading volume was increasing with bearish candles formation on the price chart.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, MACD is negative while at the moment is moving to its neutral level. The Stochastic is trading in neutral ground as prices are also in a range trading while the OsMA is gradually advancing. In our opinion, the oscillators at the time being are not so useful so we will concentrate more on the price pattern. In the shorter term we consider chances are favoring downside bias with prices likely to revisit support at 0.9240. However, we should be cautious due to the longer term indication of a range trading formation. Should the prices fall below the downside barrier at 0.9240 that will confirm the downtrend, electing the level at 0.9240 as the next target.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor0.94710.93730.93280.92400.92070.9139



22 de agosto de 2014 @ 09:51

USD/CAD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. In the last trading sessions upside bias revived and that induced prices to return to the resistance at 1.0985. As we can see at the chart, bullish development would be established and the rising trend line would be validated should the prices penetrate the cap at 1.0985. Currently the Simple Moving Averages are below price and that adds to the bullish expectations. However, the cap at 1.0985 is almost a 4-month high and has previously held attempts of the currency pair to reach higher ground.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable, that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading was increasing and that works as a confirmation of the last bullish candlesticks. Any break of the upper level at 1.0985 should be coupled by increased volume in order for that break through to be considered as valid.

USDCAD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is in the oversold zone and that suggests there is limited chance for prices to continue their upward path. The MACD is in positive ground confirming the bullish bias but the OsMA is negative. In our opinion, chances are slightly favoring the falling scenario in the immediate trading due to the strong resistance and overbought Stochastic. However, due to the highly watched annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole which could underpin rising bias we would be cautious in our trading. Lastly, in the longer term should the advancing trend line maintain ground together with a lower Stochastic, then chances would reverse in favor of the upside.


NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.11941.10611.09851.08591.07061.0620



21 de agosto de 2014 @ 10:30

 

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