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Análisis técnico rss Análisis técnico

Volatilidad

El valor Máx. / Mín. de los precios de cierre se determinan en los últimos 20 días de comercio; Desviación Estandar, - Convertido en términos anuales, expresa de la desviación estándar de los incrementos diarios


Máx. Min. Semana % Mes % YTD % desviación estándar
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


correlación

Los coeficientes de correlación están determinados para los incrementos diarios, de los últimos 20 días de comercio.


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




Intrumentos de Análisis



USD/JPY

Good day, dear traders. Today we shall consider USDJPY pair at daily chart. The correction of price movement inside D1 bearish trend channel has been completed and a new momentum is forming. H4 decreasing tendency is confirmed by Donchian Channel indicator and RSI signal. However we may observe a temporary weakening of momentum – a fractal support 105.100 is strengthened by historical values of Parabolic. A reverse of indicator will happen if a price breaks this level and moves into the red zone. In this case a final confirmation of trend continuation will be received. A risk control may be implemented according to the significant levels of chart analysis with an account of Parabolic signal.

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor108.45108.45108.45105.10105.10105.10



30 de octubre de 2014 @ 13:26

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair bearish bias drove prices to a more than an 8-month low at 0.8661. Downside structure has been strong as indicated by the steep falling trend line. The steep falling trend line though was breached yesterday after the formation of a “Hammer with bullish Engulfing candlesticks”. That also shows the AUDUSD is making its larger correction since the 5th of September. The 10 day moving average is now limiting the pull back slightly below the resistance at 0.8839, however prices could continue to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8934. Lastly, the support at 0.8661 appears to be a strong one because is the second time that maintains a strong bearish wave.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that after the September 12th the volume of trading remained at lower levels while prices have been declining suggesting that the bears are getting weaker.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is rising following the corrective move of prices and is trading in neutral zone at the moment. The OsMA has moved towards the zero line and is gradually advancing while the RSI (14) is now in up trend. In our opinion, prices are entering a period of retracement mood after overextension of the downside move however bulls do not seem willing to return in the market. Moreover, the today’s major US employment report is likely to shake the AUDUSD and could trigger a new selling wave in the short term. We do not expect the support at 0.8661 to be penetrated given its importance. Also according to the volume analysis bears’ power is fading and sooner or later a deeper correction is likely.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor0.91150.89430.88390.86610.85950.8445



3 de octubre de 2014 @ 09:58

USD/CAD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. In the last trading sessions upside bias drove prices to recent cap at 1.1217 and in the last two daily trading sessions prices retreated due to overbought indicators. The cap at 1.1217 could be a strong one since is at the 161.8% Fibonacci level of the retracement from 1.1097 to 1.0909. Moreover, the Simple Mving Averages are below prices which increase upside momentum and the valid rising trend line remains in place confirming bullish development. Based on the price pattern we could see a pull back at the support at 1.0997 andwe could take advantage of that retracement although is too risky ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. Yesterday the release of private employment showed higher job creation in September and that gives a signal of a possible stronger NFP in September as well. We should check oscillators and volume for further clues before establishing an opinion.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable, that on the second half of September the volume of trading was steady, more specifically the volume peaked at 11 of September when prices peaked at 1.1097 but at the higher high of prices at 1.1217 the volume did not follow. That could be a warning signal for the bulls since they seem to be fading.

USDCAD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic has been in overbought zone and now is falling. The MACD is in positive ground but at extreme highs and the OsMA was limited by previous peaks line. In our opinion, we would expect the retracement to continue lower or extend in a sideways path. Upside revive seems possible amid strong up trend but the bulls are weak as the volume analysis revealed. Nevertheless we are ahead of major economic releases which could create new bullish bias and boost the USDCAD. One last thing to keep in mind is that the resistance at 1.1275 is a five year peak and is considered a strong one, likely to limit any bullish attempt.


NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.14111.12751.12171.10971.09971.0909



2 de octubre de 2014 @ 10:22

USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair is consistently rising since the beginning of September and has reached the resistance at 109.43. There is a steep rising trend line indicating the strong bullish mood in the forex couple, which drove prices to 6-year fresh peak. All the Simple moving Averages are below prices and that further supports the upside continuation scenario, however the bulls prevail for almost a month now and the upward structure seems overextended. The question here is, bullish bias is going to continue?


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that the volume of trading has been decreasing while prices have been rising to fresh highs that suggest bearish divergence as the volume does not follow prices. The bulls’ power is fading and eventually we will reach a point of reversal.

USDJPY


Looking at the Oscillators the OsMA was at previous peaks line but now is falling towards neutral line bearishly diverging rising prices. The Stochastic was in overbought territory but now is falling also providing a diverging sign. Finally, the RSI (14) is in the overbought zone suggesting that the prices are likely to stop the rising path in the medium term. Therefore, the oscillators suggest that the USDJPY is likely to reverse sometime soon. In our view, the currency pair rose substantially over reflecting investors’ fundamental expectations for both the major currencies, the technical indicators confirm that by being overbought of providing bearish divergence signals. We would expect a corrective move initiation either at the resistance at 109.43 or could even go to 110.70 before a retreat comes. Going long at the moment it is highly risky while we would prefer to see a reversal pattern at the sohrter term before we go short.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor111.92110.70109.43108.23106.36104.04



25 de septiembre de 2014 @ 10:20

EUR/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Euro against the US dollar forex pair. As we can see at the price chart the currency pair is in a down trend as indicated by the declining trend line. Moreover, the Simple Moving averages are above the prices adding to the selling pressure. In the recent term, the currency pair declined to fresh 14-month low at 1.2835. The lower Bollinger band was breached indicating that the downside bias was strong while in the last trading session prices have been in consolidation. Nevertheless, the prices are near a long term low at a 2-year bottom at 1.2770 and the downward wave started from 1.3978 and extended to 1.2835 that creates concerns that is overextended. Fundamentals on the other hand are strongly bearish to the Euro.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that since September the 10th the volume has been diminishing while the EURUSD prices dropped to the 1.2835. The volume of trading provides a warning in this case that the bears are weakening and we might be near a potential reversal point.

EURUSD

Looking at the oscillators, we observe a very interesting thing which adds to the warning of the volume. The Stochastic is in neutral zone and normally would not be informative at all, however we said that prices dropped to fresh low but Stochastic did not follow. The same is observed with the longer term indicator, the RSI (14), creating a bullish divergence. At the same time the OsMA is above zero and gradually advancing. Based on this analysis, our opinion is favoring an upside scenario. The EURUSD could reverse at this point and start a correction in the following week. Prices could test initially resistance at 1.2974 ahead of the 38.2% of 1.3413 to 1.2835, at 1.3057.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.31971.30571.29741.28351.27721.2667



19 de septiembre de 2014 @ 10:24

GBP/USD

Hello dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the sterling against the greenback forex couple. As we can see at the daily chart the currency pair is down trending and has found supported at earlier trading session at 1.6065 which is a new 9-month low. Prices rebounded in the previous to resistance at 1.6277 amid oversold indicators and investors were covering short positions. Downside bias has revived in the yesterday trading ahead of the Scotland vote for independency. Falling trend line suggests that bearish potential remains strong coupled by the 10, 20 and 50 Simple Moving Averages being well above prices. However, the currency pair fell sharply and substantially which concern us for its sustainability. The question here is, will this well extended bearish wave continue or a bounce up? One answer that all investors expect is that in case Scottish vote Yes the British pound would weaken further if the outcome is No then sterling would recover.


At the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last trading sessions the volume for the British pound was gradually decreasing as the prices were rising. That is actually indicating that bulls were losing their power as prices were retracing and eventually bears returned stronger. Also, as we approach the referendum day on Thursday, investors prefer to hold a wait and see stance. More polls would be published on Wednesday as well so we expect volume to increase from Wednesday. Lastly, we see on the price char that a “hanging man” candle formation was created below cap at 1.6277 before downside revival turning focus to support at 1.6065.

GBPUSD

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic rose to overbought zone quickly, the OsMA has almost reset to zero line suggesting that the risk is turning to lower levels. However, the RSI (14) remains at 30 line suggesting that the currency pair is overextended to the short side in the longer term. In our opinion, the GBPUSD has obviously touched at extreme low at 1.6065 and bounced up providing a chance to reposition on the short side, it is likely that would revisits support at 1.6065. Nevertheless we have to be cautious due to Scottish vote that could trigger any directions, it is hard to make a call at the moment, therefore we would take intraday positions only with tight stop loss.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.66431.65351.62771.60651.58661.5732



16 de septiembre de 2014 @ 10:15

 

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