Análisis técnico

Volatilidad

El valor Máx. / Mín. de los precios de cierre se determinan en los últimos 20 días de comercio; Desviación Estandar, - Convertido en términos anuales, expresa de la desviación estándar de los incrementos diarios

	Máx.	Min.	Semana %	Mes %	YTD %	desviación estándar
EUR/USD	1.3374	1.2854	0.66%	3.59%	2.86%	6.87%
GBP/USD	1.5718	1.5040	0.92%	3.02%	1.15%	7.90%
USD/JPY	103.15	94.07	-4.00%	-7.29%	23.16%	16.75%
USD/CHF	0.9780	0.9203	-1.13%	-4.57%	-1.60%	12.40%
AUD/USD	0.9801	0.9424	1.59%	-1.98%	-6.23%	11.47%
USD/CAD	1.0397	1.0148	-0.42%	-0.90%	-0.20%	7.47%

correlación

Los coeficientes de correlación están determinados para los incrementos diarios, de los últimos 20 días de comercio.

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	USD/CAD
EUR/USD	1	0.84	-0.61	-0.81	0.57	-0.71
GBP/USD	0.84	1	-0.65	-0.77	0.45	-0.66
USD/JPY	-0.61	-0.65	1	0.68	-0.30	0.32
USD/CHF	-0.81	-0.77	0.68	1	-0.26	0.58
AUD/USD	0.57	0.45	-0.30	-0.26	1	-0.45
USD/CAD	-0.71	-0.66	0.32	0.58	-0.45	1

Intrumentos de Análisis

AUD/USD

Downside bias resumed in the currency pair’s recent trading with prices trying to revisit a more than 2 ½ year low at 0.9317. Also downward development is increasing chances of further lows. However surging oscillators formed a bullish divergence against sliding prices and that suggests positive reaction, thus short positions should be taken with caution.

We expect a slightly more possible scenario for prices to revisit low at 0.9317 and even continue lower towards support at 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 0.9317 to 0.9665, at 0.9089. Nonetheless, bullish divergence reduces significantly chances for downside potential and could limit prices above lower barrier at 0.9317 in the intraday and during the medium term prices could lift back to 0.9665.

Nivel	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Valor	0.9868	0.9776	0.9665	0.9317	0.9089	0.8737

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18 de junio de 2013 @ 11:49

USD/CHF

Downside was overextended to a 4-month low at 0.9133 in one negative wave pushing oscillators to extreme trough levels. At lows the pair created a long legged candlestick which could be interpreted as a reversal pattern and that could push prices to correct at least up to 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9303. Stochastic and Momentum (7) have now retraced as well from oversold zones but their positive reaction could continue more.

We expect the prices to continue corrective move and reach first resistance at 0.9303 where 10 SMA is also located, above that focus will be shifted toward 38.20% Fibonacci level at 0.9403. Contrariwise should the 0.9303 hold upside, prices would revisit support at 0.9133, followed by lower Bollinger band at 0.9022.

Nivel	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Valor	0.9490	0.9403	0.9303	0.9133	0.9022	0.8929

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17 de junio de 2013 @ 11:40

EUR/USD

Upside development found cap at 1.3393 with the intraday bias there turning negative. Overbought oscillators have made the currency pair heavier giving control to bears for the time being. Another factor that limited bullish momentum is that prices have been continuously walking on the upper band and negative reaction should be anticipated.

We expect the EURUSD to retrace initially towards 23.60% Fibonacci level of 1.2814 to 1.3393, at 1.3250 which is slightly above 10 SMA, below that level corrective move would enter into deeper phase and likely then to go as low as 50.0% level at 1.3103. Contrariwise, the pair could extend into consolidation zone between 1.3393/1.3250.

Nivel	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Valor	1.3708	1.3479	1.3393	1.3250	1.3103	1.3037

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14 de junio de 2013 @ 11:51

USD/CAD

The USDCAD dropped below SMAs strengthening further negative bias and indicating vulnerability of positive long term up trend. However major support around the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 1.0011 to 1.0419 at 1.0158 may manage to hold falling prices while extreme lows of Momentum (7) and Stochastic could induce the pair in corrective move.

We consider the USDCAD reached a significant support around 1.0158 and that could trigger some short covering turning bias to the upside with prices then looking towards resistance at 10 and 20 SMA around 1.0262. Potential reversal of the dominating positive structure would be considered greatly in case prices are unable to rise back to 1.0262 or above that.

Nivel	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Valor	1.0419	1.0337	1.0262	1.0159	1.0076	1.0011

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13 de junio de 2013 @ 12:00

USD/JPY

Resumption of weakness in recent trading pushed the currency pair to return near more than 2-month low at 94.94 but on Wednesday session it recovered slightly revisiting resistance at 96.98. Lower Bollinger band limited negative momentum and at the time being prices are bullishly diverging from RSI (14) marginally new lows, suggesting possibiities for positive reaction are increasing.

Thus, we expect corrective move of the USDJPY to continue and is likely to rise above the resistance at 96.98 targeting next cap at 38.20% Fibonacci level of 103.76 to 94.94, at 98.30. Alternatively, the pair could extend sideways between 96.98/94.94 area, in that case possibilities for downside resumption in the medium term would accumulate making barrier at 94.94 vulnerable.

Nivel	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Valor	100.41	98.30	96.98	94.94	92.51	90.94

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12 de junio de 2013 @ 11:49

GBP/USD

Upside bias prevails in currency pair’s trading with prices spiking above the 50.0% Fibonacci level as well as the upper Bollinger band in previous session but then quickly returning below major resistance at 1.5590. Oscillators are advancing, however Momentum (7) and Stochastic reached extreme high levels suggesting corrective move is likely to follow.

Therefore we consider rising and remaining above 1.5590 a less likely scenario, in addition we expect prices to retrace back towards support at 1.5407 initially, should they breach that level focus will shift towards SMAs consolidation level around 1.5296.