The most certain situation for the USD/JPY on the H4 chart (see the picture). There was the uptrend line breakthrough occurred — the Yen started falling. We can assume that investors no longer believe in the continued growth of the U.S. economy and pre- fix profits. The Parabolic touches the bearish trend line. that builds confidence in our assumption. The nearest maximum and minimum lie between the Pivot and the first resistance Pivot level - thus the price behaves predictably under nonlinear analysis tools. Note that breakthrough of the resistance at 103.507 will lead to the formation of the "Hound of the Baskervilles" that will provide a strong signal of the bearish determination .
The analytic situation spoiled by oscillator RSI(14) as always - the downtrendline crossing upwards was occured. This happened despite the fact that the main trend is falling. Cautious traders are recommended to wait until the RSI crosses in the the support line opposite direction in 4-8 hours after they start watching the position. This will mean a false penetration upwards and continued downfall.
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