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Análisis técnico rss Análisis técnico

Volatilidad

El valor Máx. / Mín. de los precios de cierre se determinan en los últimos 20 días de comercio; Desviación Estandar, - Convertido en términos anuales, expresa de la desviación estándar de los incrementos diarios


Máx. Min. Semana % Mes % YTD % desviación estándar
EUR/USD 1.3684 1.3488 1.12% 1.50% 5.40% 5.20%
GBP/USD 1.6221 1.5948 0.83% 0.80% 3.81% 7.85%
USD/JPY 98.97 96.86 0.15% -0.41% 27.71% 7.87%
USD/CHF 0.9132 0.8989 -1.08% -1.07% -3.70% 7.12%
AUD/USD 0.9675 0.9312 1.40% 2.83% -5.78% 5.64%
USD/CAD 1.0396 1.0285 -0.82% -0.06% 1.24% 4.09%


correlación

Los coeficientes de correlación están determinados para los incrementos diarios, de los últimos 20 días de comercio.


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.80 -0.59 -0.93 0.06 -0.24
GBP/USD 0.80 1 -0.68 -0.86 0.00 0.03
USD/JPY -0.59 -0.68 1 0.66 -0.05 -0.19
USD/CHF -0.93 -0.86 0.66 1 -0.06 0.07
AUD/USD 0.06 0.00 -0.05 0.06 1 -0.27
USD/CAD -0.24 0.03 -0.19 0.07 -0.27 1




Intrumentos de Análisis



USD/CAD

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to look into the US dollar against the Canadian dollar chart pattern. The currency couple found resistance at the 50.0% of 1.0960 to 1.0630, at 1.0791 and that coincides with the falling trend line. Both indicate that the down trend is well respected and that suggests that downside would revive. Prices rose above the 20 and 10 Simple Moving Average but the 50 SMA was not breached. Moreover the declining structure is indicated by the falling trend line which further adds pressure to the USDCAD.


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is declining and that suggests bears are getting stronger. At the same time though the MACD is rising towards its zero line but still remains in negative territory. The OsMA is gradually falling and that agrees with the overall bearish expectation. In our opinion and based on that analysis, we consider the short side the most likely profitable scenario. We would prefer to wait until we see a violation of the support at 1.0714 which could revive the downtrend. Next support is seen at 1.0630 and below that the pair would be trading at new 7-month lows. Please have in mind that today we expect Canadian Retail Sales report which increases the trading volatility.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.10611.08571.07911.07141.06301.0528



23 de julio de 2014 @ 10:33

AUD/USD

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair trades above the tentative up trend line and has recently draw a support line at 0.9326. The rising trend line indicates the bullish bias and suggests that prices will continue to the upside. However, we see that the resistance around 0.9447 maintains well its ground and has limited upside attempts since April. Checking the shorter term the currency pair is in a trading range between 0.9447/0.9326 and that is also indicated by the Bollinger bands who have narrowed around the prices. We also see a fake break out of the resistance at 0.9447 which adds to the suspicion that this cap level is major.


Looking at the oscillators, MACD is at its base line holding a neutral stance, the OsMA is rising towards the zero line and the Stochastic is rising. The Stochastic and the OsMA are more bullish than the MACD. The recent range trading pattern has mixed the indicators but the upside is still there and could be triggered at any point. In our opinion chances are favoring the upside should the resistance at 0.9447 is breached. However, we would be cautious because it’s a strong level and we would prefer to see a close above that level before we follow. More aggressive trading style suggests establishing long positions above 0.94, stop loss below rising trend line and first target the recent peak at 0.95.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor0.95000.94470.94000.93260.92630.9207



22 de julio de 2014 @ 10:17

EUR/USD

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to analyze the Euro against the US dollar forex pair. As we can see at the price chart the currency pair went down around the support at 1.3476 which is a 7-month low, but for the time being the currency pair bounced up slightly. In the longer term the trend is negative as indicated by the falling trend line and for that reason we would expect pressure to persist on the downside hurdle at 1.3476. All the SMAs are above prices which add to the downside pressure. Nevertheless we would expect the 1.3476 not to be an easy obstacle for the falling prices and could hold its ground like it did in previous times.


Looking at the oscillators, Stochastic is in the oversold zone suggesting that declining prices may pause for the time being. The OsMA on the other hand has been moving lower confirming the downside bias. The RSI (14) followed prices in the recent trading and as we can see is down trending adding to the bearish expectations. In our opinion, downside bias prevails and we consider chances are favoring the violation of the support at 1.3476 in the medium term. Moreover, below that support we look at the possible next support levels at 1.3381 which is the 161.8% of the 1.3500 to 1.3701 bounce up and the next one at the 10-month low at 1.3298.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.37881.37011.35721.34761.33811.3298



21 de julio de 2014 @ 11:26

USD/CAD

Good afternoon, dear investors. Today we consider the example of spread currency trading, an efficient trading method used within the Personal Composite Instruments - PCI technology. The basis of this method is the expression of the underlying asset in units of the quoted asset based on the cross course model. At the same time the underlying asset and the quoted one may act as instrument portfolios.
Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) two key macroeconomic indicators of the Canadian economy are to be released: Core CPI, m/m and Wholesale Sales, m/m. Both indicators characterize the purchasing power of the population and, as a result, the economy attractiveness for investors. There is a high probability that the indicators release results in increased volatility of the Canadian Dollar against major currencies and the possible trend movement.

Here we consider the synthetic instrument built in NetTradeX trading platform using the GeWorko Method: CAD/[AUD+CHF+EUR+GBP]. The price of each of the currencies included in the instrument is calculated automatically by the program in U.S. Dollars. The price of the pair trading tool is expressed on the basis of the Canadian price (expressed in USD) relative to the quoted uniform-weighted portfolio price: AUD(25%), CHF(25%), EUR(25%), GBP(25%). The investment share in each portfolio asset is selected at the level of 25%. Buying a synthetic spread is identical to purchasing CAD(USD) and the simultaneous selling of the quoted portfolio consisting of 4 currency pairs AUD(USD)+CHF(USD)+EUR(USD)+GBP(USD). We would like to note that quoting of the Canadian against the base currencies portfolio allows diversifying short position risks and at the same time increase the instrument reaction intensity on fundamental changes in the Canadian economy.
NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.00511.00741.01010.99730.99110.9845



18 de julio de 2014 @ 14:09

USD/JPY

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) two key macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. economy are to be released: Building Permits MN and Unemployment Claims, W1. Both indicators permit predetermining indirectly the domestic consumption prospects in the U.S. market. The fastest reaction is expected after the release of unemployment data, as it is calculated on the weekly data basis.
This data is collected by the U.S. Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. The indicator allows estimating the domestic demand dynamics, as well as the consumer lending capacity to stimulate the U.S. economy. The significant indicator growth improves inflation expectations and reduces purchasing power. Today the unemployment claims number is expected to increase from 304,000 to 310,000. There is a high probability that the indicator release may cause increased U.S. dollar volatility regarding stable Asian currencies; that is exactly what we are going to use.

Here we consider the USD/JPY behavior on the daily chart. The price is located within the weeklong consolidation area limited by a triangle. This encourages us to focus more on the oscillators’ analysis which caters for leading signals of the sideways range. At the moment there is a weak bullish trend for RSI-Bars (13) with the temporary correction onset. There is a possibility of trend destruction at the oscillator support breach 34,049, which coincides with the price level intersection at 100,783. At the same time we fix the lower triangle border break-out and the movement beyond the DonchianChannel. It is recommended to place a pending sell order below this mark.
It is reasonable to start buying only if the rate rises higher than 102,345. This fractal resistance is confirmed by ParabolicSAR historical values and DonchianChannel 13-day resistance. Moreover, there is a high probability of this key level breach results in leaving the triangle and entering into the green zone. After that the stop loss orders on short positions will be executed, which results in panic buying.

After two pending orders opening, we expect the first of them to be executed and the opposite position to be closed: let the market chaos decide the behavior. After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, or near the next fractal peak (trough, in case of long position). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.
NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor102.26102.75102.2697.6399.56100.78



17 de julio de 2014 @ 16:12

USD/CAD

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) two key macroeconomic indicators of the Canadian and American economies are to be released:Manufacturing sales in Canada and the U.S. Producer Price Index,PPI m/m. Both indicators are determined on the monthly data basis, and characterize the manufacturing sector development. It is worth mentioning that the change in sales volume in the Canadian manufacturing sector is a leading factor in employment and consumer spending, which considerably affects the investment volume in the economy.

U.S. Producer Price Index is rather considered to be an inflation index, because it indicates the percentage change in price of the U.S. goods and services. PPI m/m includes three production areas: industry, commodity sector and processing industry. The significant index growth improves inflation expectations and reduces purchasing power.
There is a high probability that the release of both indicators may cause USD/CAD increased volatility. Here we consider the USD/CAD behavior on the daily chart. The price approached to the daily downtrend line, a large-scale movement also has a bearish trend. However, we can see that RSI-Bars leading oscillator demonstrates the first weakening trend signal: the resistance breach, marked in red ellipse on the chart. We assume the breach to be false, only if the price continues moving within the D1 channel and crosses the support at 1.06164. You should wait for this signal if you are planning to open a short position. The key level of 1.06164 is confirmed by Parabolic SAR historical values and the DonchianChannel lower border.

A definite conclusion on the daily downtrend completion can be done only after the fractal resistance downward breach at 1.08930, which coincides with the trend indicators historical values. This is exactly the key level to place a pending buy order. Risk limitation is placed at the last support level of 1.06164. In case the movement continues within the D1 channel, you can start selling from the same key position at 1.06164. When crossing this level, the Parabolic downward reversal and the Donchian channel support downward intersection are expected. Thus, the pending sell order is determined in a symmetric manner.

After two pending orders opening, we expect the first of them to be executed and the opposite position to be closed: let the market chaos decide the behavior. After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

NivelRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Valor1.10071.09591.08941.06161.05881.0560



16 de julio de 2014 @ 11:24

 

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