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USD/JPY Technical analysis rss Technical analysis

FX Volatility

High/Low daily close values derived from 20-day moving period; StDev – annualized standard deviation of one month's daily returns.

High Low Week % Month % YTD % STDEV
EUR/USD 1.3684 1.3488 1.12% 1.50% 5.40% 5.20%
GBP/USD 1.6221 1.5948 0.83% 0.80% 3.81% 7.85%
USD/JPY 98.97 96.86 0.15% -0.41% 27.71% 7.87%
USD/CHF 0.9132 0.8989 -1.08% -1.07% -3.70% 7.12%
AUD/USD 0.9675 0.9312 1.40% 2.83% -5.78% 5.64%
USD/CAD 1.0396 1.0285 -0.82% -0.06% 1.24% 4.09%

Currency Market Correlation

Correlation coefficients determined on the basis of one month’s daily returns.

EUR/USD 1 0.80 -0.59 -0.93 0.06 -0.24
GBP/USD 0.80 1 -0.68 -0.86 0.00 0.03
USD/JPY -0.59 -0.68 1 0.66 -0.05 -0.19
USD/CHF -0.93 -0.86 0.66 1 -0.06 0.07
AUD/USD 0.06 0.00 -0.05 0.06 1 -0.27
USD/CAD -0.24 0.03 -0.19 0.07 -0.27 1

FX Instruments


The US dollar against the Japanese Yen is trading between resistance at 104.12 and strong support at 101.15. Thus, trading range prevails with direction not being clear inducing moving averages being useless this time. As we can see the weekly up trend line was breached by sideway prices while a downward trend line is established. Based on trading pattern chances are more for prices to move toward their upper bound since they were recently limited by lower boundary.

Looking at the oscillators, we receive some bearish contrarian indications. The Stochastic declined to the oversold zone and is currently recovering suggesting that prices will recover as well. At the same time the Oscillator Moving Average fell to previous troughs line suggesting that lower ground is less likely. Therefore rebound to higher ground is more likely as well according to oscillators. In our view chances favor that the USDJPY will move toward resistance at 102.85 ahead of the top of the trading range at 104.12.

Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com


15 April 2014 @ 09:59


The US dollar against the Japanese Yen remains in trading range, between 103.43/101.18 in the long term and between 102.66/101.76 in the short-term. Therefore, the current point is critical since would indicate the prevailing trend. Falling lower would confirm the seemingly recently established downward structure. Although rising configuration could revive because the decline to 101.80 could be a correction of the upward move from 96.54 to 105.54.

The oscillators do not provide much of information; OsMA and MACD are not useful when price pattern is in a range. Stochastic on the other hand is bearish because is below its moving average. In our view, if prices breach support at 101.18, that could be a good entry point to the short side targeting 161.8% extension at 99.74. Nonetheless, breaking above cap at 103.42 then that would imply revival of the upside exposing peak at 105.45.

28 March 2014 @ 10:05


Hello dear investors and traders. Today, in the afternoon, there are no have key news for the market expected. This is partly due to the fact that the U.S. celebrates Martin Luther King's Day. Apparently, the fundamental analysts are also happy to be celebrating this day. In this regard, we will focus solely on the technical and mathematical signals for exchange rates. It is most likely that the price will move by inertia within identified trends until the key events, coming out tomorrow such as Manufacturing Sales for the Canadian economy .

The most certain situation for the USD/JPY on the H4 chart (see the picture). There was the uptrend line breakthrough occurred — the Yen started falling. We can assume that investors no longer believe in the continued growth of the U.S. economy and pre- fix profits. The Parabolic touches the bearish trend line. that builds confidence in our assumption. The nearest maximum and minimum lie between the Pivot and the first resistance Pivot level - thus the price behaves predictably under nonlinear analysis tools. Note that breakthrough of the resistance at 103.507 will lead to the formation of the "Hound of the Baskervilles" that will provide a strong signal of the bearish determination .

The analytic situation spoiled by oscillator RSI(14) as always - the downtrendline crossing upwards was occured. This happened despite the fact that the main trend is falling. Cautious traders are recommended to wait until the RSI crosses in the the support line opposite direction in 4-8 hours after they start watching the position. This will mean a false penetration upwards and continued downfall.


Hello, dear traders. Our attention is chained to the U.S. economy Ttoday, we expect two key indicators to 14:30 GMT +0: Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI m / m) and jobless claims (Unemployment Claims) for last week. Consumer price index reflects the statistics collected for a month, so there is no doubt it will play a key role in changing the behavior of investors. It is noteworthy that this core inflation is taken into account when the Fed changes its base rate and therefore it can significantly affect the price. This indicator is expected to increase by 0.1%. We also expect the jobless claims to fall by three points that corresponds the overall tendency of withdrawal the U.S. from the recession. If a positive scenario for the U.S. economy is confirmed, or rises above expectations we should pay attention to the possibility of buying the USD

Let us see two scenarios for the USD/JPY and AUD/USD currency pairs. The yen prepares to deceive us with a false the support line breakthrough on the H4. Indeed, the daily trend is ruled by the bears, and all three types of indicators also confirm the H4 upward trend. The Parabolic trend indicator confirms the support level at 104,188 is in favor of the the bulls. The same signal is received from the RSI and the Pivot. The last one broke through the main resistance level that happens very rare and it allows us to expect the future growth in prises. The Pivot level breaktheough is coincided with the pair of candlestick patterns "absorption", followed by the " hammer" candle.

Another pair - AUD / USD also expects positive data for the U.S. economy. Yesterday there was a breakdthough of the H4 support line after the U.S. producer price index (PPI m / m)release. This event corresponds the to "hammer" on the chart, as well as the breakthough of the first Pivot resistance around 0.86680. Now the situation for the technical indicators is unambiguous. The RSI oscillator and the Parabolic trend indicator are under bearish control.


Tonight we expect two more news concerning the U.S. economy. The first indicator coming out at (14:15, GMT +0, Greenwich) reflects the greatest impact on the market because it is coming out before the Nonfarm Payrolls, which is to be be released on Friday . Change in employment according to the company Automatic Data Processing (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change) based on a survey of 400 anonymous clients of commercial companies. Employment - a key factor influencing consumer demand and, as a consequence, the growth in the U.S. economy. In 2.5 hours at (16:30, GMT +0, Greenwich) we will find out about U.S. (Crude Oil Inventories). This factor is controversial because destocking may cause inflation, but on the other hand, it may bring provit to oil companies. Moreover , unlike the monthly ADP it reflects the weekly data . This figure will be interpreted against the background of the previous values.

In terms of technical signals, there is an interesting situation observed for pair USD/JPY. There was a resistance line breakthrough occurred after the U.S. trade balance publication. This point is consistent with equilibrium candle marked in yellow on the chart. The oscillator divergence preceded the breakthrough RSI(14). This indicator has already managed to break through the resistance uptrend line - there is a high likelihood of the USD/JPY continued growth, at the fact that Parabolic confirms the trend. The second important confirmation signal is a Pivot resistance level reakthrough.
Questions and discussions:e-mail:s.kamenshikov@ifcmarkets.com, Skype:ifcm_analytics


8 January 2014 @ 10:14


Good afternoon, dear traders. Despite yesterday's positive statistics on the U.S. (ISM Manufacturing PMI), the US dollar has weakened its position. This is due to the growth in initial jobless claims for the past week - 339K against the expected 334K. Since Unemployment Claims data directly characterize the state of all economic sectors of and that is a harbinger of Nonfarm, then this news had a dominant influence on the behavior among investors.

Nevertheless, the temporary correction on the Yen created favorable conditions for long positions opening at the daily support line. The RSI(14) crossed the resistance line and turned towards the overbought zone - the first sign of a possible change in the trend direction. The last candle pattern corresponds to "hammer" and also indicates change in direction of price movement near resistance. If the current candle closes above 30.2 % Fibonacci level, we can observe steam absorption pattern, enhancing the signal. The dashed line in the pattern represents the Pivot level that coincides with the previous maximum and the firs resistance/support - R1, S1. Buy positions are recommended to be open only after confirmation by Parabolic, or at least after it is crossed by the graph of the price chart. The nearest target is determined by the Fibonacci system. It is as same as the resistance level of the Pivot Points, and the historical maximum. The price movement impulse and correlated reaction of investors should be expected after the speech of the Fed chairman at 20:30 GMT in Philadelphia. This is the last speech of Ben Bernanke as a head of the US Federal Reserve, however, there is an intrigue about it.


3 January 2014 @ 12:14


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