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USD/JPY Technical analysis rss Technical analysis

FX Volatility

High/Low daily close values derived from 20-day moving period; StDev – annualized standard deviation of one month's daily returns.


High Low Week % Month % YTD % STDEV
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


Currency Market Correlation

Correlation coefficients determined on the basis of one month’s daily returns.


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




FX Instruments



USD/JPY

Good day, dear traders. Today we shall consider USDJPY pair at daily chart. The correction of price movement inside D1 bearish trend channel has been completed and a new momentum is forming. H4 decreasing tendency is confirmed by Donchian Channel indicator and RSI signal. However we may observe a temporary weakening of momentum – a fractal support 105.100 is strengthened by historical values of Parabolic. A reverse of indicator will happen if a price breaks this level and moves into the red zone. In this case a final confirmation of trend continuation will be received. A risk control may be implemented according to the significant levels of chart analysis with an account of Parabolic signal.

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value108.45108.45108.45105.10105.10105.10



30 October 2014 @ 13:26

USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair is consistently rising since the beginning of September and has reached the resistance at 109.43. There is a steep rising trend line indicating the strong bullish mood in the forex couple, which drove prices to 6-year fresh peak. All the Simple moving Averages are below prices and that further supports the upside continuation scenario, however the bulls prevail for almost a month now and the upward structure seems overextended. The question here is, bullish bias is going to continue?


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that the volume of trading has been decreasing while prices have been rising to fresh highs that suggest bearish divergence as the volume does not follow prices. The bulls’ power is fading and eventually we will reach a point of reversal.

USDJPY


Looking at the Oscillators the OsMA was at previous peaks line but now is falling towards neutral line bearishly diverging rising prices. The Stochastic was in overbought territory but now is falling also providing a diverging sign. Finally, the RSI (14) is in the overbought zone suggesting that the prices are likely to stop the rising path in the medium term. Therefore, the oscillators suggest that the USDJPY is likely to reverse sometime soon. In our view, the currency pair rose substantially over reflecting investors’ fundamental expectations for both the major currencies, the technical indicators confirm that by being overbought of providing bearish divergence signals. We would expect a corrective move initiation either at the resistance at 109.43 or could even go to 110.70 before a retreat comes. Going long at the moment it is highly risky while we would prefer to see a reversal pattern at the sohrter term before we go short.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value111.92110.70109.43108.23106.36104.04



25 September 2014 @ 10:20

USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair escaped from therange trading structure by breaching previous support at 104.27 and formed an advancing pattern as indicated by the climbing trend line. The forex couple rose to fresh 5-year high at 106.37 and the bias is clearly upside thus we might see higher prices in the intraday. All the Simple moving Averages are below prices and that supports the upside continuation scenario.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that in the previous week of trading the Japanese Yen volume increased validating the bullish rally of the prices.

USDJPY


Looking at the Oscillators the OsMA is at previous peaks line, the Stochastic is above the 80 line and the RSI (14) is in the overbought zone. Therefore, the oscillators suggest the that the USDJPY is at extreme highs. In our view, the currency pair overpassed a key resistance and remained above that indicating that up trend is the prevailing structure however we are cautious due to the overbought oscillators. A consolidation trading may take place around 106.37 before prices continue to next cap at 108.23.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value109.40108.23106.37105.40104.27103.55



9 September 2014 @ 09:53

USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair rose to support at 104.27 and formed an advancing structure as indicated by the climbing trend line, currently the forex couple retraced to support at 103.55. It seems that prices escaped the range trading pattern between 103.88/100.77 and that favors the upside development. All the Simple Moving Averages are below prices and that adds to upside expectations.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last month trading the Japanese Yen volume of trading is decreasing while the Japanese Yen was losing in power. More specifically on the 22nd and 20th of August when prices of the USDJPY moved to higher ground, volume spiked higher as well, validating directions. Also in the last four trading sessions when prices retrace the volume is low suggesting that bears in the USDJPY are weak.

USDJPY


The Oscillators are declined in the last four trading sessions like the prices did. The Stochastic has retraced from overbought zone and now is in neutral zone heading lower. The OsMA is gradually falling while the RSI (14) dropped below 70 line. In our view, we consider that for the longer term we should watch for potential breakthrough of the upper barrier at 104.27. Currently oscillators are correcting from overbought zones to give the chance for prices to continue higher


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value105.39104.80104.27103.55103.08102.43



29 August 2014 @ 10:07

USD/JPY

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As you can see at the chart the currency pair remains in a potential descending triangle which according to theory is a bearish trading pattern. However, we favor more the range trading pattern between 102.93/100.77. One could take advantage of the range trading and make profitable moves. However, should the currency pair breach the falling trend line at 102.80 to the upside then rising bias will strengthen. Downward break out of the support at 100.77 would confirm the descending triangle and bears will prevail. We will be watching this currency couple closely because of the US news expected for this week, like the FOMC Statement and employment report.


The Oscillators are mostly in neutral status since the prices are in a trading range. The Stochastic though has entered the overbought zone and that increases chances for prices to return to lower levels. In our view, we consider that for the longer term we should watch for potential breakthrough of the upper or the lower barriers of the range. In the mean time we could take some profit by trading the range, stochastic is overbought thus prices could move towards support at 101.09.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value102.80102.25101.93101.09100.7799.01



28 July 2014 @ 10:59

USD/JPY

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) two key macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. economy are to be released: Building Permits MN and Unemployment Claims, W1. Both indicators permit predetermining indirectly the domestic consumption prospects in the U.S. market. The fastest reaction is expected after the release of unemployment data, as it is calculated on the weekly data basis.
This data is collected by the U.S. Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. The indicator allows estimating the domestic demand dynamics, as well as the consumer lending capacity to stimulate the U.S. economy. The significant indicator growth improves inflation expectations and reduces purchasing power. Today the unemployment claims number is expected to increase from 304,000 to 310,000. There is a high probability that the indicator release may cause increased U.S. dollar volatility regarding stable Asian currencies; that is exactly what we are going to use.

Here we consider the USD/JPY behavior on the daily chart. The price is located within the weeklong consolidation area limited by a triangle. This encourages us to focus more on the oscillators’ analysis which caters for leading signals of the sideways range. At the moment there is a weak bullish trend for RSI-Bars (13) with the temporary correction onset. There is a possibility of trend destruction at the oscillator support breach 34,049, which coincides with the price level intersection at 100,783. At the same time we fix the lower triangle border break-out and the movement beyond the DonchianChannel. It is recommended to place a pending sell order below this mark.
It is reasonable to start buying only if the rate rises higher than 102,345. This fractal resistance is confirmed by ParabolicSAR historical values and DonchianChannel 13-day resistance. Moreover, there is a high probability of this key level breach results in leaving the triangle and entering into the green zone. After that the stop loss orders on short positions will be executed, which results in panic buying.

After two pending orders opening, we expect the first of them to be executed and the opposite position to be closed: let the market chaos decide the behavior. After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, or near the next fractal peak (trough, in case of long position). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.
LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value102.26102.75102.2697.6399.56100.78



17 July 2014 @ 16:12

 

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