USD/JPY Technical analysis

FX Volatility

High/Low daily close values derived from 20-day moving period; StDev – annualized standard deviation of one month's daily returns.

	High	Low	Week %	Month %	YTD %	STDEV
EUR/USD	1.3374	1.2854	0.66%	3.59%	2.86%	6.87%
GBP/USD	1.5718	1.5040	0.92%	3.02%	1.15%	7.90%
USD/JPY	103.15	94.07	-4.00%	-7.29%	23.16%	16.75%
USD/CHF	0.9780	0.9203	-1.13%	-4.57%	-1.60%	12.40%
AUD/USD	0.9801	0.9424	1.59%	-1.98%	-6.23%	11.47%
USD/CAD	1.0397	1.0148	-0.42%	-0.90%	-0.20%	7.47%

Currency Market Correlation

Correlation coefficients determined on the basis of one month’s daily returns.

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	USD/CAD
EUR/USD	1	0.84	-0.61	-0.81	0.57	-0.71
GBP/USD	0.84	1	-0.65	-0.77	0.45	-0.66
USD/JPY	-0.61	-0.65	1	0.68	-0.30	0.32
USD/CHF	-0.81	-0.77	0.68	1	-0.26	0.58
AUD/USD	0.57	0.45	-0.30	-0.26	1	-0.45
USD/CAD	-0.71	-0.66	0.32	0.58	-0.45	1

FX Instruments

USD/JPY

Resumption of weakness in recent trading pushed the currency pair to return near more than 2-month low at 94.94 but on Wednesday session it recovered slightly revisiting resistance at 96.98. Lower Bollinger band limited negative momentum and at the time being prices are bullishly diverging from RSI (14) marginally new lows, suggesting possibiities for positive reaction are increasing.

Thus, we expect corrective move of the USDJPY to continue and is likely to rise above the resistance at 96.98 targeting next cap at 38.20% Fibonacci level of 103.76 to 94.94, at 98.30. Alternatively, the pair could extend sideways between 96.98/94.94 area, in that case possibilities for downside resumption in the medium term would accumulate making barrier at 94.94 vulnerable.

Levels	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Value	100.41	98.30	96.98	94.94	92.51	90.94

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12 June 2013 @ 11:49

USD/JPY

The USDJPY dropped below the upside trend line and the 100 mark in the recent trading to find support at the 50 SMA around 98.95. Downside momentum prevailed but that could be a corrective move since the 98.95 is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 96.79 to 103.76. In addition Momentum (7) is at previous troughs area and the Stochastic is fluctuating around 25 line, suggesting that sentiment is oversold and a bounce up is more likely which is on the way as of writing.

Thus we expect the currency pair falling attitude to be well limited by 98.95 and pull back initially towards 100.69, followed by resistance at 102.64 ahead of a 4 ½ year high at 103.76. Alternatively, prices could retest 98.95 and should they penetrate that level bearish potential would increase and lead to downside barrier at 96.79.

Levels	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Value	103.76	102.64	100.69	98.95	96.79	95.82

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4 June 2013 @ 12:22

USD/JPY

The currency pair in the last week advanced to resistance at 103.76 continuing the uptrend but early today dropped sharply below previous support at 102.64 in a correction attempt. Prices are likely to be entering in a retracement phase since the upside momentum drove all oscillators to extreme up levels.

Retracement could lead to next support at 99.96 in the short-term, while penetrating that level would indicate deeper corrective move and could shift focus to floor at 96.79. In the medium to longer-term bulls would most likely regain control, thus we expect resistance area between 103.76/102.64 to be retested.

Levels	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Value	106.56	103.76	102.64	99.96	96.79	95.82

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23 May 2013 @ 12:28

USD/JPY

The USDJPY rallied above key psychological level of 100 in last week’s trading with bullish momentum holding well and above that level despite contrarian signals from oscillators. In addition, upper Bollinger band attempts to limit upside bias coupled by resistance at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 99.96 to 95.82, at 102.64, were succesful until now. Thus chances for Yen short covering increased significant in the recent trading.

We expect prices to consolidate between 102.64/ 99.96 possible range bound in the near term to softened overbought sentiment. Following that, bullish mode will most likely renew driving prices above 102.56, towards next resistance at 103.76, ahead of the 261.8% fibonacci level.

Levels	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Value	106.56	103.76	102.62	99.96	96.79	95.82

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15 May 2013 @ 12:31

USD/JPY

Consolidation between 99.96/96.79 range continues as the currency pair upside style was contained by psychological level at 100. Prices could continue above that since dominating trend remains positive though vulnerable. Last retracement tested support at 96.79 which easily held its ground and induced prices to return back close to peaks. We are concerned about the strength of resistance area around of 100 but we consider bullish development more likely than otherwise.

Should the upper boundary at 99.96 be penetrated would trigger buy orders and drive prices higher towards cap at 101.37 ahead of the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 99.96 to 95.82, at 102.52 coupled by the upper Bollinger band. Alternatively, consolidation could go on and place further in doubt the support at 96.79 or lower support at 95.82.

Levels	RES 3	RES 2	RES 1	SUP 1	SUP 2	SUP 3
Value	102.52	101.37	99.96	96.79	95.82	94.43

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7 May 2013 @ 11:30

USD/JPY

Cap at 99.96 has proven to be a strong level holding upside attempt twice and turning bias to neutral in the intraday reinforced by major psychological resistance at 100. In addition, a double top reversal is potentially developing and that could transform prevailing trend, however dominating trend remains surging and we consider it unlikely to be reversed in the immediate trading. Therefore, is more likely for prices to test again resistance at 99.96 maintaining medium-term bullish mood.

Should the prices correct deeper would find initial support at 96.79, followed by possible Double Top neckline and 50 SMA at 95.82. Contrariwise, strong upside renewal could drive prices above 99.96 triggering sell stop orders and therefore increasing bulls potential towards 101.37, ahead of upper Bollinger band and 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 102.52.