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USD/JPY Technical analysis rss Technical analysis

FX Volatility

High/Low daily close values derived from 20-day moving period; StDev – annualized standard deviation of one month's daily returns.


High Low Week % Month % YTD % STDEV
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


Currency Market Correlation

Correlation coefficients determined on the basis of one month’s daily returns.


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




FX Instruments



USD/JPY

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As we can see at the chart the currency pair rose to support at 104.27 and formed an advancing structure as indicated by the climbing trend line, currently the forex couple retraced to support at 103.55. It seems that prices escaped the range trading pattern between 103.88/100.77 and that favors the upside development. All the Simple Moving Averages are below prices and that adds to upside expectations.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We can see that on the last month trading the Japanese Yen volume of trading is decreasing while the Japanese Yen was losing in power. More specifically on the 22nd and 20th of August when prices of the USDJPY moved to higher ground, volume spiked higher as well, validating directions. Also in the last four trading sessions when prices retrace the volume is low suggesting that bears in the USDJPY are weak.

USDJPY


The Oscillators are declined in the last four trading sessions like the prices did. The Stochastic has retraced from overbought zone and now is in neutral zone heading lower. The OsMA is gradually falling while the RSI (14) dropped below 70 line. In our view, we consider that for the longer term we should watch for potential breakthrough of the upper barrier at 104.27. Currently oscillators are correcting from overbought zones to give the chance for prices to continue higher


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value105.39104.80104.27103.55103.08102.43



29 August 2014 @ 10:07

USD/JPY

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As you can see at the chart the currency pair remains in a potential descending triangle which according to theory is a bearish trading pattern. However, we favor more the range trading pattern between 102.93/100.77. One could take advantage of the range trading and make profitable moves. However, should the currency pair breach the falling trend line at 102.80 to the upside then rising bias will strengthen. Downward break out of the support at 100.77 would confirm the descending triangle and bears will prevail. We will be watching this currency couple closely because of the US news expected for this week, like the FOMC Statement and employment report.


The Oscillators are mostly in neutral status since the prices are in a trading range. The Stochastic though has entered the overbought zone and that increases chances for prices to return to lower levels. In our view, we consider that for the longer term we should watch for potential breakthrough of the upper or the lower barriers of the range. In the mean time we could take some profit by trading the range, stochastic is overbought thus prices could move towards support at 101.09.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value102.80102.25101.93101.09100.7799.01



28 July 2014 @ 10:59

USD/JPY

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) two key macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. economy are to be released: Building Permits MN and Unemployment Claims, W1. Both indicators permit predetermining indirectly the domestic consumption prospects in the U.S. market. The fastest reaction is expected after the release of unemployment data, as it is calculated on the weekly data basis.
This data is collected by the U.S. Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. The indicator allows estimating the domestic demand dynamics, as well as the consumer lending capacity to stimulate the U.S. economy. The significant indicator growth improves inflation expectations and reduces purchasing power. Today the unemployment claims number is expected to increase from 304,000 to 310,000. There is a high probability that the indicator release may cause increased U.S. dollar volatility regarding stable Asian currencies; that is exactly what we are going to use.

Here we consider the USD/JPY behavior on the daily chart. The price is located within the weeklong consolidation area limited by a triangle. This encourages us to focus more on the oscillators’ analysis which caters for leading signals of the sideways range. At the moment there is a weak bullish trend for RSI-Bars (13) with the temporary correction onset. There is a possibility of trend destruction at the oscillator support breach 34,049, which coincides with the price level intersection at 100,783. At the same time we fix the lower triangle border break-out and the movement beyond the DonchianChannel. It is recommended to place a pending sell order below this mark.
It is reasonable to start buying only if the rate rises higher than 102,345. This fractal resistance is confirmed by ParabolicSAR historical values and DonchianChannel 13-day resistance. Moreover, there is a high probability of this key level breach results in leaving the triangle and entering into the green zone. After that the stop loss orders on short positions will be executed, which results in panic buying.

After two pending orders opening, we expect the first of them to be executed and the opposite position to be closed: let the market chaos decide the behavior. After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, or near the next fractal peak (trough, in case of long position). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.
LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value102.26102.75102.2697.6399.56100.78



17 July 2014 @ 16:12

USD/JPY

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As you can see at the chart the currency pair remains in a potential descending triangle which according to theory is a bearish trading pattern. However, we favor more the range trading pattern between 102.80/100.77. Should the currency pair breach the falling trend line around 102.80, to the upside then rising bias will strengthen. Downward break out of the support at 100.77 would confirm the descending triangle and bears will prevail. Therefore we would watch its trading closely.


Nevertheless, as we said earlier at current trading the USDJPY remains in a trading range and that suggests continuation of sideways between 102.80/100.77. In other words we could take advantage of the range to make some profit.


The Oscillators are mostly in neutral status since the prices are in a trading range. The Stochastic though has entered the overbought zone and that increases chances for prices to return to lower levels. In our view, we consider that for the longer term we should watch for potential breakthrough of the upper or the lower barriers of the range. In the mean time we could take some profit by trading the range, stochastic is overbought thus prices could move towards support at 101.29.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value104.09102.80102.28101.29100.77100.00



4 July 2014 @ 11:23

USD/JPY

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As you can see at the chart the currency pair has formed a potential descending triangle which according to theory is a bearish trading pattern. However, it could just be a range trading formation and with upside breach would return to rising structure. Downward break out of the support at 100.77 would confirm the descending triangle therefore we would watch its trading closely, and should that happen then falling chances will increase.


Nevertheless, at current trading the USDJPY remains in a trading range and that suggests continuation of sideways between 102.80/100.77. Any penetration of the upper barrier or the lower boundary might show the prevailing direction, but we should cautious for fake breaks.


The Oscillators are mostly in neutral status since the prices are in a tight trading range. The only indicator that gives some hope is the Bollinger band which is very tight and that suggests we would see a break out soon. In our view, we consider that chances favor downside break out given the likely descending triangle but we would expect to see a falling penetration of 100.77 before we follow. Also lower risk reward ratio is required because a “bear trap” is usual in this kind of trading patterns.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value105.47104.09102.80101.57100.7799.01



25 June 2014 @ 09:53

USD/JPY

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to talk about the US dollar against the Japanese Yen trading pattern. As you can see at the chart the currency pair has formed a potential descending triangle. We have previously talked about that formation in the USDJPY trading pattern but prices since then extended further in 102.97/100.77 range. A descending triangle according to theory is a bearish formation therefore chances are increasing for downward break out. However based on the chart picture we conclude that the most probable scenario for the USDJPY in the immediate trading is that the range trading will continue. In the longer term though we consider chances are favoring downside development.


In our view, we consider a good strategy to follow the forex pair should it break below the 100.77. However should the falling trend line is violated to the upside then our directional view must be modified. Oscillators, like the OsMA are bearish since is declining. Lastly, stochastic has also been bearish but that is not likely to continue due to oversold line.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value105.47104.14102.80101.42100.7799.01



16 June 2014 @ 11:48

 

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