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AUD/USD Technical analysis rss Technical analysis

FX Volatility

High/Low daily close values derived from 20-day moving period; StDev – annualized standard deviation of one month's daily returns.


High Low Week % Month % YTD % STDEV
EUR/USD 1.3429 1.3188 -0.98% -1.65% 1.66% 3.73%
GBP/USD 1.6913 1.6569 -0.26% -2.19% 6.66% 4.26%
USD/JPY 104.03 102.04 1.01% 1.78% 35.01% 4.45%
USD/CHF 0.9158 0.9023 0.74% 0.98% -2.30% 4.18%
AUD/USD 0.9353 0.9261 0.25% -0.64% -9.06% 5.47%
USD/CAD 1.0982 1.0885 0.16% 0.99% 7.76% 4.62%


Currency Market Correlation

Correlation coefficients determined on the basis of one month’s daily returns.


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
EUR/USD 1 0.82 -0.88 -0.92 0.04 -0.64
GBP/USD 0.82 1 -0.73 -0.58 0.07 -0.46
USD/JPY -0.88 -0.73 1 0.88 0.09 0.55
USD/CHF -0.92 -0.58 0.88 1 -0.03 0.66
AUD/USD 0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.03 1 -0.37
USD/CAD -0.64 -0.46 0.55 0.66 -0.37 1




FX Instruments



AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair bearish bias drove prices to a more than an 8-month low at 0.8661. Downside structure has been strong as indicated by the steep falling trend line. The steep falling trend line though was breached yesterday after the formation of a “Hammer with bullish Engulfing candlesticks”. That also shows the AUDUSD is making its larger correction since the 5th of September. The 10 day moving average is now limiting the pull back slightly below the resistance at 0.8839, however prices could continue to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8934. Lastly, the support at 0.8661 appears to be a strong one because is the second time that maintains a strong bearish wave.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that after the September 12th the volume of trading remained at lower levels while prices have been declining suggesting that the bears are getting weaker.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is rising following the corrective move of prices and is trading in neutral zone at the moment. The OsMA has moved towards the zero line and is gradually advancing while the RSI (14) is now in up trend. In our opinion, prices are entering a period of retracement mood after overextension of the downside move however bulls do not seem willing to return in the market. Moreover, the today’s major US employment report is likely to shake the AUDUSD and could trigger a new selling wave in the short term. We do not expect the support at 0.8661 to be penetrated given its importance. Also according to the volume analysis bears’ power is fading and sooner or later a deeper correction is likely.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value0.91150.89430.88390.86610.85950.8445



3 October 2014 @ 09:58

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair after it breached the previous strong support at 0.9234, it declined sharply to today’s bottom at 0.8983 touching a 6-month low. Downside momentum is clear in the price pattern and that suggests that selling pressure would persist but we would expect some moderation in the intraday. The support at 0.8983 is the 261.8% extension size of the corrective move from 0.9234 to 0.9394 and that could limit the negative potential in the short term.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading is increasing except for Friday and that validates the deep decline in the recent trading.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is falling and is trading in oversold ground well below the 20 line. The OsMA has moved greatly below its previous bottom line suggesting that a corrective move is imminent. Lastly, the RSI (14) is down trending but has also dropped in negative overextended territory indicating that lower room for prices is limited. In our opinion, the oscillators at the time being are confirming the price path and given their historical levels they provided warnings that the last bearish move is overextended. In the shorter term we consider chances are favoring corrective reaction, prices are likely to bounce up to resistance at 0.9076. However, in the longer term we expect the AUDUSD to continue its falling structure and decline even lower than 0.8983 towards next downside limitation at 0.8891.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value0.92050.91420.90760.89830.88910.8819



15 September 2014 @ 11:03

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair could be on the way to create a reversal pattern from 10-month peak at 0.9503 to recent support at 0.9240 and that is indicated by the falling trend line. However the currency couple could just be in a wide range between upper boundary at 0.9502 and bottom boundary at 0.9210. The Simple Moving Averages are not a reliable indicator at the moment because of their mixed signs. The range trading pattern is the most likely scenario with prices in the intraday being on a downside bias.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that on the last trading sessions the volume of trading is decreasing and that validates our conclusion of an indecision period, in other words the range trading formation.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic is falling and is trading in neutral ground as prices are also in a range trading while the OsMA is gradually moving towards its neutral line. Lastly ,the RSI (14) down trending suggesting that we may be on a falling start point. In our opinion, the oscillators at the time being are not so useful so we will concentrate more on the price pattern. In the shorter term we consider chances are favoring downside bias with prices likely to revisit support at 0.9240. However, we should be cautious due to the longer term indication of a range trading formation. Should the prices fall below the downside hurdle zone of 0.9240/0.9210 that would confirm the downtrend, electing the level at 0.9140 as the next target.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value0.95030.94700.93710.92390.92100.9141



2 September 2014 @ 09:27

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair has likely created a reversal pattern from 9-month peak at 0.9502 to recent support at 0.9240 and that is indicated by the falling trend line. However the currency couple could just be in a wide range between top at 0.9502 and bottom at 0.9207. Nevertheless, the support at 0.9240 represents a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the up move from 0.9328 to 0.9471. The latter, suggests that we are looking at a falling structure and the support at 0.9240 is strong. Moreover, Simple Moving Averages formed a triple “death” cross adding to the negative bias expectation.


Furthermore, at the below chart we can see the daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is observable that on the last trading session the volume of trading is decreasing and that suggests the last upside candle could not be valid. Moreover the trading volume was increasing with bearish candles formation on the price chart.

AUDUSD


Looking at the oscillators, MACD is negative while at the moment is moving to its neutral level. The Stochastic is trading in neutral ground as prices are also in a range trading while the OsMA is gradually advancing. In our opinion, the oscillators at the time being are not so useful so we will concentrate more on the price pattern. In the shorter term we consider chances are favoring downside bias with prices likely to revisit support at 0.9240. However, we should be cautious due to the longer term indication of a range trading formation. Should the prices fall below the downside barrier at 0.9240 that will confirm the downtrend, electing the level at 0.9240 as the next target.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value0.94710.93730.93280.92400.92070.9139



22 August 2014 @ 09:51

AUD/USD

Hello, dear traders. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair likely created a reversal pattern from 9-month peak at 0.9502 to recent support at 0.9240 or it could just be in a wide range between top at 0.9502 and bottom at 0.9207. If we just see the shorter term formation, falling trend lines suggest the bearish sentiment prevails. Moreover, Simple Moving Averages formed a triple “death” cross adding to the negative bias expectation. However, the support at 0.9240 it is the 161.8% extension of the up move from 0.9329 to 0.9471, previous low has been observed around 0.9240 and 0.9207 which suggests that these support levels might be hard to overpass.


Looking at the oscillators, MACD is gradually declining and has room for lower levels suggesting that downside could continue. The Stochastic is negative and slightly above its oversold zone, given the down trend in the short term, the oscillator can go deeper. The OsMA suggests a retracement could continue. In our opinion, the down trend exists while the current bounce up is due to support at 0.9241 and the even stronger support at 0.9207 where buy orders are placed. We would believe that bears are accumulating power at the moment and prices would likely revisit downside hurdle at 0.9241 and most likely to test the lower support as well, at 0.9207.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value0.93730.93290.92980.92410.92070.9137



13 August 2014 @ 09:58

AUD/USD

Hello to all traders out there. Today we are going to analyze the Aussie against the US dollar chart. The currency pair comes from a long term uptrend but a reversal pattern is created in the daily timeframe with prices falling to 2-month low. Currently the forex pair is below the both of the tentative falling trend lines and as we can see there is a likely bearish formation establishment. Moreover, the Moving Averages are creating negative triple cross which increases bearish expectations. The current candle of the currency pair is a bearish engulfing and has made a substantial down move in the current daily trading session also it has breached the lower Bollinger Band. However, the candle is not yet finished and therefore its signal is not valid, we have to wait to see the close of the day to make the appropriate conclusions. Towards the next support which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 0.9329 to 0.9471, at 0.9240 there are not any obstacles blocking the way. Thus, based on the price analysis we would expect the currency couple to move lower at 0.9240.


Looking at the oscillators, MACD is gradually declining and has room for lower levels suggesting that downside could continue. The Stochastic crossed its signal line from above and OsMA is mostly neutral. In our opinion, the downside would most likely continue towards 0.9240 and if the current candle close as a big bearish engulfing then chances are for succeeding 0.9207 as well. Below 0.9207 there will be a double top long term reversal pattern which would signify falling structure.


Questions and suggestions:analytics@infinmarkets.com

LevelsRES 3RES 2RES 1SUP 1SUP 2SUP 3
Value0.94710.93730.93290.92400.92070.9100



7 August 2014 @ 09:35

 

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